User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday December 15, 2005 - 22:36:03 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-15-05

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-15-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Rebounds Thanks to Blockbuster TIC data
• Softer Eurozone Data Weighs on Euro
• Carry Traders Continue to Run for the Exits in USDJPY

US Dollar

The US set two new records this past week – a record trade deficit of -$68.9 billion as well as a record amount of foreign purchases of US securities. With the second month of back to back triple digit inflows, the strong TIC data helped to offset some of the dollar bearishness that was brought on by the growing deficits. Over the past 5 months, it seems that whenever we receive a bad deficit number, the market is shocked at the economy’s structural imbalances and sends the dollar lower, but once we learn about how much capital has flowed into the US and the extent by which the amount covers the same month’s trade deficit, they soon shrug off their initial concern. Today’s price action was pretty indicative of this same sentiment, as the strong TIC data induced the dollar to recuperate a good portion of Wednesday’s losses. In fact, the market perceived the TIC data as so important that they were able to completely brush off the biggest drop in consumer prices in 56 years. Even though the TIC data was very important, it tends to be treated more like a lagging indicator than a leading indicator, given that the report was for the month of October. Consumer prices on the other hand is a pseudo leading indicator in that it helps the Fed determine what to do next with interest rates. The latest report is yet another piece of evidence confirming that we may very well be near the end of the Fed’s rate hike campaign. If so, there is only so much more room for the dollar to rally, and most traders will be looking for opportunities to buy on dips than to sell on rallies. The other reports released today were mostly mixed with the stronger Empire Manufacturing offset by a weaker Philly Fed. Industrial production accelerated by 0.7 percent as companies continued to increase activity as needed for the recovery efforts in the Gulf Coast. This is a slower pace of growth than the 1.3 percent rate registered in the month of November. Capacity utilization also ticked higher to 80.2 percent from 79.8 percent, highlighting the tight constraints that the economy still faces.

Euro

The EUR/USD faced a double blow today. Softer economic data and comments from ECB President Trichet weighed on the Euro while stronger US data gave dollar bulls a good reason to recover some of yesterday’s losses. French non-farm payrolls were revised to unchanged in the third quarter from up 0.1 percent while Eurozone labor costs fell from 2.5 percent to 2.2 percent. The softer labor costs suggest that even though European corporations may be doing better, these benefits have yet to filter back to their workers. This explains why consumer spending has remained so restrained in Europe, as it illustrates how workers are seeing their wage growth shrink rather than expand amidst the region’s gradual recovery. ECB President Trichet reiterated his earlier comments that even though the central bank raised rates recently, it does not mean that they will necessarily follow up with a series of rate hikes. Judging from comments from ECB officials as a group, it seems that so far, we are in route for no changes next month.

British Pound

The British pound sold off today against the dollar despite a stronger retail sales report. Spending for the month of November leaped 0.7 percent compared to the market’s forecast for 0.3 percent growth. For the previous month, spending was also revised higher by 0.4 percent from 0.2 percent. However a deeper look at the report shows that the retail sales deflator fell 1.1 percent for the second consecutive month, suggesting that the increase in sales is primarily due to retailer discounting. Also, the report contrasts with the CBI retail sales survey released earlier this month, which actually suggested that November was the worst month for retailers in 22 years. In the context of mostly weaker economic data that we have seen this past week, we remain doubtful of today’s stronger report. Judging from today’s price action, it seems that the market may agree as well.

Japanese Yen

The dollar rallied against all of the major currency pairs today EXCEPT for the Japanese yen. For the second day in a row, USDJPY tumbled over 175 pips, the biggest two day decline since March 2002. It is clear that carry traders were just waiting for the Fed to give them any reason to start running for the exit. In the past seven trading sessions, USDJPY has fallen 4.5 percent. Comments from the MoF’s Vice Finance Minister Hosokawa confirm how the government is completely unconcerned about yen weakness, but any whiff of yen strength and they start ringing the warning bells. Last night, Hosokawa said that the yen’s move was “relatively big,” “excessive” and “undesirable.” He also added that even though the yen is in line with fundamentals, they will be watching the price action “with great attention.” Although they are far from considering intervention to support USDJPY, it is a clear illustration of where their alliance stands.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 20 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales


Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Fri-- 12:30 GMT CA- Retail Sales and CPI. Top economic indicators.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Fri-- 14:00 GMT US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105