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Wednesday June 30, 2004 - 12:38:49 GMT
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FX Thoughts - Evening - 30/06/04.......1225 GMT

Euro @ 1.2162/7....July outlook
-----------------------------------------
R: 1.2126-47 / 1.2197 / 1.2313
S: 1.2117-00 / 1.2082 / 1.2047
The Euro is still in an uptrend on the Monthly chart, while above the important/ crucial Support at 1.1930. Below that we have very strong Support in the 1.1687-1475 region which might be used for building medium/ long term Long positions

On the upside, a rise above 1.2360 could take the Euro up to 1.2710


$-Yen @ 108.84/9....July outlook
--------------------------------
R: 109.27-39 / 109.65 / 109.80-98
S: 108.71-93 / 108.55-35 / 108.11
We may expect USDJPY to trade in a 105-115 range in July, with a bearish tone. Resistance to watch (besides 115) will be 111.04 (immediate), 112.04 (strong and crucial) and 114.35 (strong and crucial). The Supports are 108.10 and 107.10 (crucial)

Our Short at 108.55 was stopped out at 109.00.


Euro-Yen @ 132.40/5...Mixed up in July also
---------------------------------------------
R: 132.46 / 132.78-82 / 133.41-65
S: 131.92 / 131.62-42 / 131.30
The Cross has risen sharply today, throwing our expectations on USDJPY and USDCHF all out of kilter. The mistake was ours that we did not notice a very strong Monthly Support at 130.80

EURJPY is likely to continue to trade in a yo-yo fashion between 130-137 through July, not favouring either of its constituents in particular. This could also imply that both the Euro and the Yen will (in general) either strengthen or weaken agains the Dollar. As we've seen above, the Monthly charts remain bearish for the Dollar against both Euro and Yen. So, that's something to keep in mind.


$-Swiss @ 1.2523/8....July outlook
----------------------------------
R: 1.2601-13 / 1.2635 / 1.2729-47
S: 1.2567-64 / 1.2538-19 / 1.2505
As it turns out, we had a very good Short position at 1.2610, but we let it go cheaply by taking profit at 1.2590. The reason we kept a very modest Take Profit was that yesterday's rally to 1.2679 was more than we'd expected. It got us scared a bit and we wanted to be square ahead of the FOMC. Conversely, our Short position in USDJPY, which we were more sure of was stopped out. C'est a vie.

The Monthly chart looks bearish and suggests an eventual fall towards 1.20, unless there's a strong and sustained rise above 1.30. The immediate Resistance to look out for will be 1.2650. Oh woe, we saw this Monthly Resistance NOW, instead of in the morning. Wouldn't have changed our trade, though, for we would have been scared of a Month Close above 1.2650 in that case.

On the downside, the market will have to contend with 1.2183, the Feb-04 low.


Cable @ 1.8117/22...The City Bluff
------------------------------------
R: 1.8112-24 / 1.8145 / 1.8180-01
S: 1.8065 / 1.7937 / 1.7881
The sharp rise in the Cable after the sharp fall in the morning (reversing all of the fall) is a little typical of Cable on UK data days. City (of London) traders, all members of various old boys club will first trade the market to one side, so they can trigger stops and then trade the market back to where it was (or better) on release of the data. Of course, it takes guts to call the City's bluff, like it always is the case with every other bluff.

1.8080-70 is a crucial Support on the Monthly chart. Should the Cable close above it today, it will remain technically bullish for an eventual rise towards 1.90. In case it closes below 1.8070 today, there could be chances of a fall towards 1.7500-7450 in July.

With 0.68 likely to provide strong Resistance on the EURGBP Monthly chart, we would need to be careful about selling Cable aggressively.




Happy Trading!

 

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