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Monday December 19, 2005 - 11:14:05 GMT
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Forex Trading Strategies

Time for the USD to follow through weaker. Key week for US housing data.

JPY finally eases back a bit overnight, but any weakness may fade quickly ahead.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Strong German IFO Friday: 99.6 vs. 98.2 expected and highest in over 5 years.
• US Current Account Deficit for Q3 out at –195B vs. –205B expected
• WTO talks end with limited agreements – EU to halt all farm export subsidies by 2013. US to to cut payments to cotton farmers. Most imports from poorest nations to be made duty free in US and EU.

Market moves: JPY eased weaker again overnight, while AUD moved a bit stronger and USD remained steady.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
The USD avoided an acceleration weaker on Friday as the Current Account balance for Q3 came out smaller than expected. Keep in mind, however, that this is one of the "latest" data points in the market - meaning that this data point is for activity ending in late September. The worst Trade Balance number, for example, came in October, the first month of Q4 - so there's still the possibility that the "global imbalance" theme may be renewed going forward.

This week will be a key one for US housing data as we have US Housing Starts and Building Permits up tomorrow - remember the disappointment in this number last month. On Friday, we have the US New Home Sales for November just ahead of the Christmas weekend, which will tell us whether the October data (a record) was a fluke.
Technically, it looks like 1.1950 is becoming quite the line in the sand for EUR/USD, which now is looking comfortable with its break through the 1.1900 resistance last week. With that now accomplished, we need to see some follow through action higher, as we focus on the 1.2150/1.2200 zone initially, but possibly 1.2450 eventually. The JPY has finally eased back a bit, but a renewed round of buying may set in soon as the damage to the trend there appears fatal. 140.00 may be symbolic resistance for EUR/JPY, while 116.50/70 may contain USD/JPY.

One cross of interest is EUR/GBP, which doesn't look particularly interesting from a technical point of view, but GBP still looks overvalued in this market. Possibly it's the market's interest in beating up on EUR/JPY that has warped the picture in the European crosses, but it would seem that EUR/GBP is mispriced here with all of the miserable data coming out of the UK while the short rates picture in Europe is looking bullish and business surveys stream in at multi-year highs. A break of 0.6795 may be worth following.
Looking for the market's weakling (besides our favorite punching bag, the NZD), we single out CAD, which really looks to take a beating with the strong JPY (CAD/JPY was the top performer of 2005 among the major crosses in 2005), weaker energy prices and a weak USD. An acceleration weaker in CAD may be due today with the Canada CPI up and Canada Retail Sales out tomorrow.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
Risk warning

Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
www.saxobank.com

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

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