User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday December 22, 2005 - 21:37:41 GMT
FXCM - www.dailyfx.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Dollar Weakens Ahead of Possible Yield Inversion

DailyFX Fundamentals 12-22-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of www.dailyfx.com

• Dollar Weakens Ahead of Possible Yield Inversion
• Inflation Still on the Minds of Dollar Traders
• Pound Extends Losses Following Weaker GDP and Wider Current Account

US Dollar

After three days of gains, the dollar has finally retraced against the Euro and Japanese Yen. However, dollar strength was not broad based as the greenback still managed to rally against currencies with a higher interest rate, such as the Australian Dollar, British Pound and Kiwi. This divergence indicates that for once in a long while, the dollar is not setting the tone for the market’s overall direction. Instead, weaker economic data from New Zealand and the British Pound sent those currencies lower while stronger reports from Japan and more hawkish rumors from Europe helped the currencies of those countries gain strength. In the US, data remained very mixed. Personal income increased an as expected 0.3 percent while spending matched that rise. Even though spending was slightly less than the market had anticipated, the country’s savings rate was negative for the sixth consecutive month. This is one of our biggest concerns because if the housing market does weaken as analysts have expected, consumers will not have much additional discretionary income to continue fueling our economic growth. Meanwhile jobless claims improved from 331k to 318k, which was not unusual, but certainly a nice surprise. The last US release of the day was leading indicators, which increased 0.5 percent in November after an upwardly revised 1.0 percent rise the previous month. With just one more trading day until the long weekend, flows have really begun to dry up. However, it may be too early to turn a blind eye to the markets since tomorrow delivers to us yet another dose of important economic data. We are expecting not only the durable goods orders report for the month of November, but also the University of Michigan consumer confidence report and new home sales. One interesting note is that the spread between 2 and 10 year yields is less than 4 bp. If the curve inverts, it is generally taken as a recessionary signal and the weaker outlook could explain why gold prices rallied $9 today.

Euro

The Euro recuperated some of its recent losses today as more rumors of an early interest rate hike circulated in the markets. Yesterday, Reuters carried an article citing an unnamed source that a rate hike could come in March. Today, a well known US based fund advisory also released predictions for an early rate hike. The ECB has been very quiet this week, perhaps because they are all in holiday mode, but today’s first glance at the inflation reports suggests that rate hikes may indeed still be on their minds while they sip their eggnogs. German import prices increased by a more than expected 5.5 percent while consumer prices in Saxony, Bavaria, North Rhine and Bradenburg all increased more than expected in the month of December. Other data was more mixed with Italian business confidence and retail sales increasing but Eurozone industrial new orders contracting. Tomorrow, we expect consumer price figures for Germany as a whole, but judging from today’s reports, tomorrow’s Eurozone data is expected to be more positive for the Euro.

British Pound

In contrast to the Euro, the British pound weakened for the fourth consecutive day. GDP growth for the third quarter was revised down to 0.4 percent from 0.5 percent while the current account deficit ballooned to GBP -10.2 billion from GBP –1.4 billion in the third quarter. Accounting for 3.4 percent of GDP, this is the highest level recorded in just under five years. Rising imports, an increase in foreign repatriation of profits due to the US Homeland Investment Act and insurance related payments tied to Hurricane Katrina has all contributed to the bulging deficit. JPMorgan UK Economist Malcom Barr made a great point when he said that “If UK domestic demand is as depressed as everyone believes, why are we importing so much.” His belief that underlying domestic demand may actually be stronger is supported by the 8 percent annualized rise in sales at John Lewis, a large UK department chain. Following the 7.1 percent rise last week, sales in the holiday season seem to be off to a good start.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen strengthened against the dollar after three days of losses thanks to more encouraging economic data. The tertiary activity index increased by 1.2 percent, which is close to double market expectations. According to this latest round of data, the economic recovery in Japan appears to be continuing at a healthy pace. The trade surplus for the month of November printed at JPY 600 billion which was slightly less than the market expected, but still represents a strong increase in exports which rose 2.1 percent month over month to a new high. The weakness in the Japanese Yen has clearly been helping the export sector and also supporting the country’s economic recovery. The Ministry of Finance’s weekly flow data indicates that foreign investors continued to be net buyers of Japanese bonds and stocks while Japanese investors have increased their purchases of Australian, New Zealand and British bonds. Bank of Japan Governor Fukui reiterated his commitment to watching consumer prices and not the government’s recommended GDP deflator. He sees inflation increasing and the country’s moderate recovery gaining momentum in the year ahead.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105