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Friday December 23, 2005 - 11:24:37 GMT
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Forex Trading Strategies

GBP struggle may be set to continue. Next week is key for the JPY with big round of economic data from Japan.

Thin markets await traders today. CAD may be weak on natural gas decline - but Oct. GDP for Canada up later.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Australia Leading Index declined -0.3% in October
• US Natural Gas prices dropped precipitously on a smaller than expected storage draw and forecasts of milder weather in the US
• Japan was closed for a national holiday.
Market Moves
GBP was very weak yesterday and NZD weak again overnight.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
Today markets will be very thin as Japan was closed overnight and it's hard to imagine any serious players putting on big new positions in such thin markets ahead of the holiday weekend. Still, there may some room for movement as the setup going into next week looks rather interesting for the JPY. This is because virtually every major data point is up early next week and the outcome of this storm of data could confirm or deny the latest strengthening move we have seen in the JPY across the board.

On Monday, we have Japan's Supermarket and Department Store Sales and the BSI Large Manufacturing and All Industry surveys. On Tuesday, we have the Jobless Rate, Household Spending, and the very key National and Tokyo CPI data, as well as Housing Starts. Wednesday will see the release of Retail Trade, Industrial Production, Earnings, and Small Business Confidence. Of all of these, we would focus most on Tuesday's Household Spending and CPI data.

CAD is also interesting at this point due to the nice test of 1.1630/50 area of support that has so far held and the massive sell-off yesterday in Natural Gas - which is a key export commodity to the US. If energy is key for CAD strength, then all of the recent weakness in energy prices could lead USD/CAD higher towards 1.2000. Watch out for the Canada October GDP release later today.

Elsewhere, the interest rate moves lower yesterday were a key development and make the prospects for a stronger USD somewhat dimmer, even if the technicals don't allow a change of plan just yet. Tough to call that situation with such thin markets here. As we move into next week - we'll let 1.1940 trigger the bullish view in EUR/USD and a move through 1.1800 support trigger further bearishness toward the low and beyond. At present, we are forced to stay marginally bearish on a technical basis.
Up today we have the US Durable Goods Orders number and University of MIchigan Confidence - we don't look for either of these numbers to be significant market triggers.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
www.saxobank.com

 

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Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
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15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
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13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

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