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Friday December 23, 2005 - 11:32:53 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange -

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

Key Points
• Some modest upside risk initially to EUR-USD after nyesterday’s move. US data in focus.
• Eurozone balance of payments, Canadian GDP, US durable orders, new home sales and Michigan sentiment feature today.
• This is the last FX Daily until January 3. Have a good one and best of luck for the New Year.

Market Outlook

It should be a fairly subdued end to the week, although any uniform weakness or strength in the US data releases (durable orders, new home sales and Michigan sentiment - see below) could generate some market reaction. Intra-day parameters of importance on come in at 1.1860 and 1.1895 and there could be some risk to the upside initially by way of followthrough to yesterday’s rally. 116.40 and 116.80 are the equivalent levels on USD-JPY.

Day Ahead
Eurozone – balance of payments data for October is unlikely to reveal anything too meaningful. In recent months the FDI and portfolio categories have been rather erratic. In September there was a combined FDI/portfolio net inflow of €16bn compared to a net outflow of €34.5bn in August.

Canada – October monthly GDP is out after a zero number for September. The latter was somewhat forgivable given the +0.3% and +0.5% numbers recorded for July and August respectively, although another weak number today may just raise a few doubts about economic strength. However, most of the other significant data releases have remained fairly solid.

US – durable orders, Michigan sentiment and new home sales feature today. Market sensitivity could be highest to the new home sales numbers given current uncertainties about the possibility of a weakening in the housing market in 2006. However, the data is currently showing some volatility, so there may be a reluctance to jump to any firm conclusions today. There was a very sharp rise in sales last month and the market is expecting a large part of this to have been given up, so it will take an ultra-weak number to generate market impact. Durable orders ex-transport has flattened out a little over the past couple of months (+0.6% Oct, -0.1% Sep) but this was after the very strong 5.1% jump in Aug, so the level of orders remains at a record level and the uptrend is intact as one can see from the chart. Even a weak number today would do little to disturb this scenario, as it would merely be taking back some of the strength seen in August. However, a weak number may still generate a negative market reaction on the day. Michigan sentiment should show a further recovery in confidence.

Data/event EDT Consensus*

JP Market Holiday
DE CPI (Dec, prel) m/m n/a +0.9%
DE CPI (Dec, prel) y/y n/a +2.2%
SE Retail sales (Nov) m/m 08.30 +0.5%
EU Current account (Oct) 09.00 -€3.0bn
EU Balance of payments (Oct) 09.00
NO Unemployment rate (Oct, nsa) 09.00 4.7% last
CA GDP (Oct) m/m 13.30 +0.2%
US Durable orders (Nov) m/m 13.30 +1.0%
US Durables ex-transport (Nov) m/m 13.30 +1.0%
US Michigan sentiment (Dec, fin) 14.45 89.0
US New home sales (Nov) 15.00 1310k

Latest data Actual Consensus*
FR Ind outlook (Dec) -2 +1
FR Business climate indicator (Dec) 102 104
* Consensus unless stated
3mth moving average

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005


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