Thursday July 5, 2018 - 15:55:26 GMT
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German Chancellor Merkel Survives Leadership Crisis. Bank Of England to Hike?
John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com
Merkel To Survive? Late Monday, word got out that German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Interior Minister Horst Seehofer had reached an agreement which ended a two-week face-off over immigration. The dispute between two parties in the ruling coalition had threatened to break up the government. Merkel has staked her legacy on welcoming hundreds of thousands of migrants into Germany. She agreed on Monday on camps for those seeking asylum and to tighten the border with Austria to rescue her government. The plan envisions setting up holding centers at the German border for refugees already registered in other European Union countries. This agreement came on the heels of an EU accord reached late in the previous week which was long on generalities and short on specifics.
In delicate situations like this, the devil is always in the details. Personally I am not convinced that Merkel is out of the hot water yet. Often it seems voters desire change just for the sake of change. Her migration strategy has not been particularly popular in Germany or in the rest of the EU. The assimilation of a massive number of migrants is costly and can involve difficult cultural adjustments. This issue is likely to continue to hang over the Euro (currency) and the German Chancellor for some time.
Bank of England Governor Carey Signals Rate Hike Governor Carey reiterated on Thursday that a tighter U.K. monetary policy will be needed. He indicated that recent data give him confidence that the soft UK economy in 1Q18 was largely due to weather, and not the economic climate. Markets took his comments as a signal that the BOE is expecting to raise rates as early as at the August 2 the next Monetary Policy Committee meeting. He expects the BOE will have enough information at the meeting to make its August decision.
GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium
Tue 10 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Ind/Prod Output, Trade
AA 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 11 July 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:00 CA- Bank Of Canada Decision
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 12 July 2018
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 13 July 2018
A 14:00 US- Prelim University of Michigan
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