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Thursday July 1, 2004 - 10:06:07 GMT -

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Euro stalls above key psychological level/38.2 Fib retracement

DailyFX Technical Report 07-01-2004

Euro stalls above key psychological level/38.2 Fib retracement
Yen tests 50% retracement sparks massive sell-off
Swissie closes in on neckline

Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD made a brief test of the 38.2% retracement of 1.2930-1.1765 (1.2210) only to drop over a cent to the daily pivot (1.2155) in Asia trading. The move came at the stroke of midnight GMT as a slew of automated systems came back online with the easing of risk aversion. The monthly pivot rolled higher with the onset of July. Monthly pivots are now indicative of equilibrium at 1.2165 with the nearest levels of significance at 1.2375 and 1.1976 respectively. Daily pivot support however comes into play at 1.2080 (S1) and 1.2000 (S2) respectively. On the resistance side we have 1.2286 and 1.2223 as pivotal intraday horizontals. Regression trend studies remain inconclusive as the pair trades at the edge of both the macro (11/00-present) and intermediate (1/04-present) trends.

The USD/JPY made a nosedive in Asia trading following a brief test of the 50% retracement of 103.45-115.00 (109.20). As we noted yesterday, studies revealed a great propensity for an oversold condition as the pair closed in on the most considerable of Fib retracement levels. The pair has found support at the moment on the 61.8% retracement of 103.45-115.00 (1.07.85). Recent lows create local support at 107.00 with the more significant levels further still at the monthly pivot of 106.60. According to most recent price action the pair is most comfortable below the 200 (108. 55) and 100-day SMA's (109.10) indicating considerable bearish sentiment.

The GBP/USD presently trades just below the monthly pivot level of 1.8235 and the 100-day SMA (1.8205). The 38.2% retracement of 1.9125-1.17490 and intra-day lows made on 6/14 and 6/24 (1.8115) could be noteworthy in the support side. On the resistance side the 50% retracement of 1.9125-1.17490 (1.8305) seems fairly significant, as the rally had failed here 1200 GMT on 6/28.

USD/CHF presently rests on the 76.4% retracement level of 1.3610-1.2140 (1.2485). The strength seen yesterday fell short of the 100-day EMA (1.2700) and SMA (1.2723) and we feel this fact is rather noteworthy. The neckline (1.2435/50) created over six sessions ago remains valid and could be in danger on another test. We see significant support near the daily close June 6 (1.2365). On the resistance side we see the regression trend line and the big figure of 1.2600 serving to contain any moves higher over the near term.


Comment from 06/10
On 05/18 USD/CAD failed on the 4005 High (slightly below our 4030/4080 area) and reached the 3554 Low on 05/27 (slightly below our 3580/3610 area - 451pts lower). The pair kept its fall but had a quick bounce from the low to the 3725 high on 06/01, 171pts higher. The outlook is now neutral and the pair seems to establish a range. Bears will step in at 3720/70 in order to exploit the 23.6% Fibo from the Apr - May bull wave and the former breakout pt now R (May's consolidation). Higher, another decent entry for the bears will be 4020/50 thanks to the swing high, high BB and 38.2% Fibo from the 02 - 04 bear wave (error in our former comment - apologies!). Bulls will also have a couple of entries and will probably concentrate in the 3320/50 area thanks to the 200 SMA, 50% Fibo from the Jan - May bull wave and Low BB. A breakout there would then open the door to the 3100 level.

On 06/15 USD/CAD had a high at 3822 (well above our 3720/70 zone). The pair fell from there to find yesterday's low at 3314 (on our 3320/50 S zone). The outlook is now bearish and the 3500 breakout yesterday gives scope to a move to 3000/3100 (key S - 76.4% Fibo from the Jan - Apr bull wave & 23.6% Fibo from the Aug 03 - Jan 04 bear wave). Bears will wait for better risk rewards than current market and they will get involved on bounces around the 3520 level in order to exploit the new downtrend, 100 SMA, 20 EMA, breakout pt now R and 38.2% Fibo from the Jan - Apr bull wave. Higher, another level to watch for the bears will be 3760/3810 thanks to a robust Fibo confluence (23.6% Fibo from the Apr - May bull wave & 76.4% Aug 03 - Jan 04 bear wave). Finally aggressive reversal players will probably try to catch the breakout retracement momentum at 3250/3300 in order to exploit the 200 SMA, Low BB and 50% Fibo from the Jan - Apr bull wave.


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