Thursday January 5, 2006 - 16:24:24 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
Forex: Global-View Monthly Forecasts
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar was now almost neutral against the euro. The three month ahead mean forecast for EURUSD was 1.2082 from 1.1764 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (January 3 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.2020.
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) remained virtually neutral the EUR/USD at 53 from 49 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast deteriorated to 115.81 from 120.14 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 116.10. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index remained neutral. It was 52 after 48.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to close at $60.29 in three months time from the current spot vs. the previous $59.69 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked where the Fed Funds rate would be following the March 28 FOMC (currently 4.25%). Opinions were about evenly split between 4.50% and 4.75% (43% to 44%, respectively).
In a benchmark question, the mean forecast for EUR/USD for yearend 2006 was 1.2309. The $/yen forecast was 112.68.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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