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Thursday September 13, 2018 - 14:44:16 GMT
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ECB Steady; Draghi Less Dovish. Bank Of England Steady.

ECB Steady Policy; But Draghi Turns Hawkish Bank Of England Holds Policy Steady.

John M. Bland, MBA, co-founder, Global-View.com


ECB Keeps Policy On Hold, but Draghi Decidedly Less Dovish As expected Thursday, the ECB kept its seven day refinancing rate steady at 0.0% and its Marginal Lending Facility Rate unchanged at -0.40%. The bank reiterated that it expects key interest rates to remain at current levels until the summer of 2019, and in any case for as long as necessary to ensure the continued sustained convergence of inflation to levels that are below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Despite some slight adjustments to ECB staff economic forecast, President Draghi took a more upbeat tone on the economy. The ECB cut its 2019 GDP growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.8%. It also maintained its 2018 and 2019 inflation forecasts at 1.7% Staff economists cut the 2019 GDP forecast due to weaker external demand. In general, Draghi focused on strong internal growth as being the fundamental positive for the Euro-zone. The EUR has responded positively to these developments.


As expected, The Bank Of England Leaves Policy Steady. There was never any chance that the Bank of England would change policy on Thursday. The vote was 9-0 in favor of no policy change. The consensus view is that the central bank will not change rates until after a Brexit deal with the EU. At that time the 0.75% Repo Rate is expected to be increased by 25bps, assuming that economic conditions are appropriate.The central bank continued to say rate changes will be “limited and gradual”. Current street expectations are for the next rate hike in May 2019. Negotiations about Brexit continue to dominate trading. The deadline for an agreement is March 2019. There is also a cloud hanging over the future of PM May within her ruling Conservative Party. A party leadership challenge is possible heading into year-end. Al these uncertainties have become a weight of the value of the GBP vs. the USD and especially the EUR.

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 17 Sep 2018
All Day- JP Holiday
A 09:00 EZ- HICP
Tue 18 Sep 2018
No Major Data
Wed 19 Sep 2018
AA 03:00 GB- Bank of Japan Decision
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- House Permits/Starts
B 12:30 US- Current Account
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 20 Sep 2018
AA 06:30 CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- Philly Fed/LEI
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
Fri 21 Sep 2018
AFlash PMIs
AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

 

Be sure to refer every trading day to the Global-View forex trading website to see the continuously UPDATED International Economic and Events Calendar and the Forex Forum for the complete list of key items (actual economic and central bank data, selected charts, etc.) as they are released. Since 1997, Global-View.com has been featuring live discussions by active traders of current developments in the forex market in a convenient timeline format. 

 

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com


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