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Monday January 9, 2006 - 10:34:27 GMT
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JPY continuing to make waves in the market as EUR/JPY may focus on 137.50 neckline. CAD looks very vulnerable.

Japan's Tanigaki says not concerned with JPY strength. USD may consolidate stronger in the short-term ahead of data later in the week.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• Friday: Better than expected Norway Nov. Retail Sales (+0.8% vs. +0.5% exp.)
• Friday: Canada Employment Change disappoints (-2.1k vs. +20.0k exp.)
• Friday: US employment data mixed again Payrolls at +108k vs. +200k exp., but unemployment rate falls to 4.9% from 5.0%
• Overnight: Australia Nov. Retail Sales fall –0.1% vs. +0.3% exp.
• Japan’s Tanigaki says not concerned about JPY strength
Market moves: JPY strengthens further vs. the broader market in Monday's Asian session after moving stronger late Friday.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
JPY clearly the prime mover here as the dramatic blast back below the infamous 115.00 level in USD/JPY probably had options desks scrambling to buy the JPY as this barrier was likely considered by many out there as one that would hold for a while. With the momentum hot and fresh again, the JPY crosses will be very much in focus. EUR/JPY is getting interesting in what could be a head and shoulders formation with a neckline coming in around 137.50 - that level looks key for the outlook. With many of the USD pairs looking overdone (on the side of USD weakness) we could see a break from the weak USD focus and see Europe/JPY crosses taking the biggest beating here.

CAD seemed to have a key week last week as the CAD move weaker in the crosses looks like a real body blow to the currency. The likes of AUD/CAD and CAD/JPY have developed huge momentum, and USD/CAD will likely pick up the pace to the upside as well once it works its way back through that 1.1750 area resistance.

A brief note on the US payrolls on Friday - at the risk of sounding like a broken record, we suspect that the payrolls survey is "broken" as the nature of the US workforce has changed and with possibly a smaller percentage of the US employed being listed on company payrolls with the trend toward more self-employed, temporary and contract labor - the fact that the unemployment rate dropped to 4.9% should probably receive more focus - in any case, last Friday's report wasn't particularly bearish - and the reaction in the US fixed income market bears this out as rates closed close to the highs on the day. If US rates stay up here, we could get a couple of days of USD support.

The data focus this week is clearly toward the end of the week when we have the BOE and ECB out on Thursdays with their rate announcements (no changes expected - interesting to note that analysts are unanimous in expecting no hike from the ECB this time around though they are pricing in another hike by mid-year). Also up are the US Trade Balance number on Thursday and US Advance Retail Sales and PPI on Friday.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

 

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