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Thursday July 1, 2004 - 11:23:47 GMT
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Forex: US Open Market Brief 07-01-04

Yen Rises Amidst a Blizzard of Numbers
With Fed decision now behind us, and major event risk out the way, new positioning is expected to emerge in the bond and currency markets. Prior to the rate decision, trading activity declined significantly with speculative positions divided between longs and shorts. Now that the Fed has finally changed course, speculators can begin to establish stronger views, which should increase volatility and allow new trends to take hold.

Overnight, a slew of manufacturing data hit the trading screens confirming that the Euro-zone recovery is stalling. Of the four major PMI numbers (Spain, France, Italy, Germany), only French PMI managed to slightly beat (55.8 vs. 55.5) while the German PMI came in 55.9 vs. 56.3 and the EU PMI printed 54.4 vs. 54.9. Even UK PMI reported decline 54.8 vs. 55.5. Above 50, the data still indicates expansion but combined with yesterday’s disappointing collapse in Chicago PMI the EUR/USD pair seem to be engaged in the game of “last man standing”. Instead, traders are now focusing on Asia where much better than expected Tankan report (22 vs. 17) lent strength to the JPY. Bear Stearns is now calling for 100 USD/JPY as likely year-end target.

The data deluge is not over. Later today we have ISM Manufacturing for June and tomorrow the important Non Farm payrolls. If US data is weaker than expected it will support Bear Stearns’ view that JPY is now the relative leader amongst the majors.

Key Overnight Developments

- Tankan much better than expected 22 vs. 17, both Nikkei and JPY rise
- Euro-zone and UK PMI lower than projected, point to possible economic stall
- Euro-zone unemployment rate remains unchanged at 9%

FX Spot Overnight

- EUR unable to generate flow off mediocre data trades range-bound 21.30-21.80 but slight bull bias
- JPY breaks 108 handle as Tankan raises hopes of strong growth
- GBP ranges 81-82 in lackluster trade
- CHF bounces off 2550 retrace and breaks 1.25 handle once more awaiting Swiss PMI
-
Upcoming Events
11:45 GMT - (7:45 AM EST) ECB Interest Rate Decision (June) Expected at 2.0 %, Previous 2.0%
The lackluster state of EU recovery leads most of the players to expect no change. Any variance will be a huge surprise.

12:30 GMT - (8:30 AM EST) USD Initial Jobless Claims (June 26) Expected at 343K, Previous 349K
13:00 GMT - (9:00 AM EST) CHF PMI (June) Expected at 57.8, Previous 56.9
14:00 GMT - (10:00 AM EST) USD Construction Spending (m/m) (May) Expected at 0.70%, Previous 1.30%
14:00 GMT - (10:00 AM EST) USD ISM Manufacturing (June) Expected at 61.5%, Previous 62.8%
This will be the critical number to watch in US session given yesterdays steep decline in Chicago PMI

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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