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Tuesday January 10, 2006 - 12:25:29 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

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Current Account rolled out again...

Quotable

“From the one crime recognize them all as culprits.”

Virgil

FX Trading

We continue to see a lot of ink spilled foreshadowing yet another painful death for the dollar. And believe it or not the argument being resurrected by “analysts” is the old tried and failed current account conundrum as a possible reason for the “real” demise of the dollar—again, this time!

“The current account deficit is expected to stick at about 6.5 per cent of US national income — more than $850 billion (£480 billion). Market concern over the current account position may intensify this year if, as Bank of America predicts, the US balance of payments on income from foreign investments turns negative for the first time,” writes Gary Duncan, in the Times Online this morning. (A rather good summary, we might add.)

A new wrinkle spotted by the boys at Bank America for us to fret about: US balance of payments on income!

Well, maybe they are right. Maybe it will be the current account that does the dirty deed to the dollar. But trading off the current account requires a whole different time frame than most mortals are used too—unless of course you are Warren Buffet. (And even he got nicked, shall we say, playing that little game.)

Below is a chart of the US Current Account Deficit (Quarterly) and just below that is the US $ Index Monthly. If you can find a tradable entry and exit point using these two price series you are good—really good!






The simple point we are trying to make is this: Sure, the gapping US current account may be bad (though even that is still debated by economists at times), but it’s just not a reliable indicator for us to use in trading. And if it’s not reliable than it is virtually worthless!



So, when you see the following sentence as you read the currency news:

“The US dollar is falling because the current account is rising.”

Read it as:

“The US dollar is falling because the blah...blah...blah.”

If you do that you may not sound smart in font of your friends, but your trading account will thank you.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital

 

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Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




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