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Thursday January 12, 2006 - 12:01:25 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 12-Jan-2006.... 1133 GMT

Euro @ 1.2140/43....May test 1.2205
R: 1.2175 / 1.2205 / 1.2229
S: 1.2125-20 / 1.2089-81
The Euro seems to be gearing up for a test of 1.2205 or even 1.2230. Support at 1.2120 currently. On the other hand, a fall below 1.2120 would suggest that a Top is in place for the Euro and that it will probably not break past 1.2205 on the upside.

$-Yen @ 113.65/69....Take Profit on Short
R: 114.17 / 114.30-40 / 114.55
S: 113.50 / 113.33-27 / 112.93
Dollar-Yen has been finding Sellers on all advances for the last 4 days. Today it tested and bounced from Trendline Support at 113.50. When and if that Support breaks, a further decline towards 112.50 may be seen. For that, it is important that the market closes below 114.00 both today and tomorrow. The Resistance at 114.30-40 is very important as a consequence.

We missed booking profit at 113.40 (Low was 113.50) earlier in the day but want to take profit now.

Exit Trade:
Exit at current level the $25K Short entered at 114.02

Euro-Yen @ 137.98/138.03....Range 138-139
R: 138.39-48 / 138.72-89
S: 137.91 / 137.66-59
The Cross has move down towards the lower end of the perceived range of 138-139 for today. A fall below 137.91 may be bearish indicating a decline towards 137.66-59 as a precursor to further losses. A directional move in the Cross would mean that either the Yen or the Euro will decline or fail to strengthen against the Dollar. Since both currencies are poised at very crucial/ critical levels against the Dollar, we are forced to wait and watch.

$-Swiss @ 1.2746/51....Bearish bias
R: 1.2773-61 / 1.2835
S: 1.2717 / 1.2698 / 1.2647
There has been little change in the overall picture since the morning. The pair continues to be in the broad range of 1.2850 and 1.2717 on the 4-Hourly charts. There is a strong resistance at 1.2761-73. In case of a break above the resistance we may see 1.2835, which would be the upper end of the above said range. However, a downward break of the support at 1.2717 is more likely, below which we are expecting a fall to 1.2647. Hence, we would like to sell in case of a break below 1.2727

Sell 25k USDCHF at 1.2710, SL 1.2740 TP 1.2650

Cable @ 1.7684/89....Expect buying on dips
R: 1.7727 / 1.7767-72 / 1.7818
S: 1.7641-50 / 1.7612 / 1.7562
The Cable tested 1.7727, where it has met with some selling, which looks like corrective in nature. It may find buyers on dips to 1.7641-50. However, a break below the support at 1.7641 could take it down to 1.7612. The important resistance now lies at 1.7727 above which we may target 1.7767-72, which is also the maximum projected high for the day. The bias for the day is expected to be Bullish.

Aussie @ 0.7543/48....Testing 200-day MA
R: 0.7566 / 0.7587 / 0.7609
S: 0.7542 / 0.7527-23 / 0.7501-03
The Aussie is trying to break above its 200-Day MA (0.7566) over the last few hours, but it has been unable to do so. An upside break, whenever it happens, would signal a continuation of the Rally. If so, the Aussie could test 0.7587 and 0.7609 (projected daily and weekly high). Strong support at 0.7527-23. On the downside, in case of a fall below 0.7623, we may see 0.7590

Happy Trading!


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