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Friday January 13, 2006 - 11:11:27 GMT
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Reversal of fortune for JPY bulls and USD bears late yesterday and overnight. Trichet disappoints rate hawks.

USD looking like it may head stronger again vs. the broader market after market reaction to smaller than expected Trade Balance


MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• ECB's Trichet did not mention the word "vigilance" in his press conference, gave unclear signals on the rate view going forward.
• US Trade Balance for November was out at -$64.2B vs. -$66.1B expected
• Canada International Merchandise Trade for November was out at C$6.9 vs. C$6.8 expected
• US Import Price Index for December out at -0.2% vs. +0.2% expected
• US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims rose to 309k vs. 315k expected
• US Natural Gas Storage figures showed a smaller than expected draw as near record warmth hit much of the US. Natural Gas dropped further on the day to new 5-month lows
• Japan Machine Orders for November out at +2.3% vs. +5.2% expected and Tokyo Department Store Sales for December out at +2.1% year-on-year

Market Moves
The USD moved sharply stronger late yesterday and the JPY weakened sharply overnight across the board.


THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
We may have seen a key development overnight with this move to a weaker JPY as the JPY bulls looks like they have been denied a victory this time around - the breaking EUR/JPY head and shoulders pattern appears thoroughly reversed as of this writing as the neckline at 137.70 broke strongly yesterday and we're now trading north of 138.00 again. Also, the inability for USD/JPY to hold the new lows yesterday looks like a reversal as well. The question will be how high we can go on a rally - if 115.50 is taken out in USD/JPY, then we're possibly back on the road to 118.00 again.

It turns out the EUR/USD move was getting stale after all, as the reaction to the ECB meeting and Trichet's rhetoric and the slightly smaller than expected US Trade Deficit showed a market that it simply not able to commit to a weaker USD. Trichet failed to mention the word "vigilance" at any point, and this casts more than a shadow of doubt on how many hikes the ECB will go through with at future meetings as the suggestion is that the members of the ECB are not in full agreement on the move. This blasted European paper higher and the Euro swooned - even if it recovered vs. the JPY overnight.

We mentioned that we've heard of a very divided market, with large forces on both sides of the USD strength/weakness equation - and the kind of price action we've seen suggests that this is certainly the case - with a strong move up in EUR/USD, for example, followed by a full week of not much action and then a sharp move down.

The outlook here slightly favors a return to USD strength unless we see some kind of US Retail Sales catastrophe that "reverses the reversal" today - a scenario we give rather slim odds.

For those of you without an economic calendar in front of you - today we have the key US December Advanced Retail Sales (expected 0.9% and 0.4% ex Autos) and the US December PPI (expected 0.4% and 0.2% ex Food and Energy). Interesting to note that the PPI including F&E is estimated to have only risen 4.9% for the year and 1.8% ex F&E. Makes one wonder how much more hawkish the Fed will be going forward unless energy prices really get going again.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

 

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