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Friday January 13, 2006 - 12:18:39 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 13-Jan-2006....1215 GMT

[email protected] 1.2054/57....Strong resistance at 1.2082-94

R: 1.2082-94
S: 1.2040 / 1.2010-1.2000
The Euro has formed a bear flag formation on the 4-hourly candles charts, which could result in a fall to 1.1950 in a couple of days. For the rest of the day, the pair might remain pressured on the down side, with resistance at 1.2082-94. On an intraday basis there could be some support coming at 1.2010, which could limit the down side atleast for today. However the pair continues to remain in a corrective mode since 06-Jan-06, with little chances of rising today.

$-JPY @ 114.56/60.... Ranged with a Bearish Bias

R: 114.70 / 115.27-38
S: 114.26-32 / 113.78
$-Yen is consolidating between 113.78-114.70, after the sharp bounce back it had seen overnight. Now it faces an initial resistance at 114.70. If that is crossed, it could move up to 115.27-38 region. The support is appearing at 114.26-32 and if this critical support is broken then it could decline to 113.78 initially. It is expected that the $-Yen would be range bound between 113.78-114.70 on an intraday basis with a bearish bias.

Sell $ 25K at 115.02, SL 115.35, TP 114.50
Buy $ 25K at 113.90, SL 113.40, TP 114.80

Eur-Yen @ 138.12/17....expected to be ranged

R: 138.32 / 138.74-84
S: 137.98 / 137.50 / 137.07-12
The cross, after displaying volatile movement yesterday, seems to be intent on consolidating in a range between 138.32 and 137.50. The 137.50 levels is also the neckline for the Bear SHS. An important short-term support lies at 137.98 below which, it could fall down to 137.50 and then to 137.10 levels. There is also a resistance at 138.32 levels above, which the cross could move up to 138.74-84 levels. Since, we are expecting a continued range we would not like to take a trade.

$-Swiss @ 1.2837/42....Bullish Bias today

R: 1.2866 / 1.2898 / 1.2926
S: 1.2798 / 1.2774 / 1.2749
The $-Swiss has been correcting in the last few hours after a sharp Rise. The current correction is expected to find support at 1.2798 levels. A break below that support could take it down to 1.2750, the lower end of the upward slanting channel, on the 4-Hourly charts. However, the channel when viewed on the daily charts is looking as a bear flag. A rally past 1.2866 would signal to us that $-Swiss is ready to rally once again towards 1.2926, the expected high for the day. The bias for the day is bullish.

Cable @ 1.7663/68....Staying out for today

R: 1.7715-34 / 1.7747 / 1.7811
S: 1.7645-28 / 1.7579
The pair has bounced back near to the range tops at 1.7715 (of range 1.7513-1.7723) during the day against the expected fall to 1.7513. Though, the pair continues to remain in the said range, the resistance at 1.7715-34 is still a critical level for the recent Cable rally (from 1.7186, 03-Jan low). Within this rage the immediate support at 1.7626 could limit the down side in the pair atleast for today.

Our short position taken at 1.7610 got stopped out at 1.7655 during the day and we prefer to stay out of the pair today.

Aussie @ 0.7520/25....Watching support at 0.7493

R: 0.7532 / 0.7563
S: 0.7511 / 0.7475-74 / 0.7443-32
The pair has bounced back to 0.7541 from the intraday support at 0.7502-0.7496. While the support holds, the pair might test the range top at 0.7569 (of range 0.7451-0.7569). Later a rise above 0.7569 has to be awaited, for a confirmation of further rally in the pair. In case of a fall below 0.7496 supports, the pair might fall back to 0.7451 today. For today we prefer to watch the support at 0.7493.

Happy Trading!


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