Friday July 2, 2004 - 01:29:04 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily forecast for Euro vs US Dollar 2nd July 2004 General Outlook
As we run into the long U.S. weekend we are still faced with weekly Dollar bullish cycles but with daily cycles close to reversing higher. With the second decline whis week we are more inclined to the downside in the short term but consider that the coming week has a high chance of seeing the long term Dollar uptrend resume. Thus our view is cautiously Dollar bearish today but we remain vigilant to watch for any signs that the Dollar decline is complete. Broadly these breaks are at 1.2065-1.2110 Euro, 1.2625-75 Swissie and 1.8115-1.8135 British Pound.
The Dollar had a quiet day against the Japanese Yen and may have found a low. However, we tend to feel that a further test lower to the 107.40-60 area is probable before this starts to rally again. Any earlier move above 108.95-109.15 looks like accelerating the upside.
With Monday being a U.S. holiday there will be no update. However, we shall update the daily cycles in the weekly sections later today and provide any comments as necessary. Have a great weekend.
Support....: 1.2165 ... 1.2185 ... 1.2207 ... 1.2227
Resistance: 1.2133 ... 1.2120 ... 1.2100 ... 1.2065
Lower to 1.2100-20 then higher
We are currently seeing a break down to 1.2145 which we feel will soon break to trigger losses to 1.2100-20. However, we look for this area to support and generate strength back above 1.2165 and then above 1.2207 to the 1.2255-75 target area. We feel this has a good chance of holding and causing a stronger move lower again. Only above 1.2280 sees 1.2330 and 1.2365 before lower.
We re-iterate the weekly picture has more downside risk than upside. However we prefer looking for slightly higher areas to sell. We feel that later today we shall see a move to 1.2255-80 and see this as an ideal reversal area. From there or a direct break below 1.2100 and then 1.2040-65 we look for losses down to 1.1973 and 1.1830 at least.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."