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Monday January 16, 2006 - 12:21:57 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Forex: Mellon FX Daily - U.S. Edition

Key Points
• US holiday will significantly thin out market activity today.
• EUR could give up some of Friday’s gains ahead of US data releases this week.
• UK PPI features today – RICS house price balance tonight.

Market Outlook

EUR-USD has managed to hold on to the firm tone seen in the US afternoon on Friday after Trichet reminded the market that the ECB was still intent on being vigilant about potential inflation pressure. This was a clear response to the fuss made on Thursday when he failed to use the word vigilant at the post meeting press conference. Trichet’s low-key approach to policy on Thursday was almost certainly due to a desire on his part not to stoke rate hike speculation further, but his true intentions may have been brought into the open by Friday’s comment.

EUR-USD still has a number of levels of importance to face up to – notably the 200-day moving average at 1.2196. A US holiday today will significantly thin out market activity and there are a number of items on the US agenda this week - NY/Philly Fed indices, industrial output, NAHB housing market index, housing starts, CPI, Michigan sentiment and the Beige Book – with potential to affect Fed policy expectations and market apprehension about this issue will most probably limit any major movement today. If anything there is a risk that EUR-USD gives up some of the gains seen since Friday – below 1.2125-35 would open up some downside risk. The 1.20-1.22 range looks like remaining intact unless something significant can develop datawise this week.

Day Ahead
UK – PPI data is due today and this has been showing a much softer tone in recent months. The fall in the core PPI output y/y rate has been one of several factors leading to speculation that the MPC will be more relaxed about potential inflation pressure going forward. It seems unlikely that this view will be altered by today’s data. Tonight also sees the latest RICS house price balance and another decent improvement seems likely as respondents switch to reporting higher rather than lower prices.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

NO Trade balance (Dec) 09.00 NOK25.9bn
GB PPI input (Dec) m/m 09.30 +0.6%
GB PPI output (Dec) m/m 09.30 +0.1%
GB PPI output core (Dec) y/y 09.30 +1.5%
GB ODPM house prices (Nov) y/y 09.30 +2.6%
GB RICS house prices (Dec) 00.01 +8%
AU Housing finance (Nov) m/m 00.30 0.0%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Domestic CGPI (Dec) y/y +2.2% +2.1%
JP Current account (Nov, sa) Y1.6trn Y1.76trn
JP Ind prod (Nov, final) m/m +1.5% +1.4%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



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