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Monday January 16, 2006 - 12:46:36 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 16-Jan-2006....1230 GMT

Euro @ 1.2130/3....Fall to 1.2105? Holding Long
--------------------------------------------------
R: 1.2179 / 1.2191 / 1.2217-34
S: 1.2119 / 1.2106-01 / 1.2094 / 1.2066
The Euro has shied away from moving up to test 1.2180 today and is showing signs of falling towards 1.2105 and lower. If that happens, our Long at 1.2140 will be stopped out. Immediate Support is at 1.2119. While that holds, we might still be safe, assuming that not too much movement might take place for the rest of the day, since the US is on holiday.

For the week, there would still be chances of an upmove past 1.2190 if the Euro remains above 1.2090-65 through today and tomorrow.


$-Yen @ 114.66/70.....Ranged
------------------------------
R: 114.61 / 114.79-90
S: 113.79 / 113.40
Dollar-Yen looks absolutely ranged between 113.40-115.15 for the next few days. Sentiment seems to be totally neutral. Milk the range for all its worth.

Our Long at 113.90 saw profit at 114.50. We now hold a Short.

Holding:
$25K Short at 114.60, SL 115.00, TP 114.16 (up from 114.00)

Order:
Buy $25K at 114.00, SL 113.70, TP 114.50


Euro-Yen @ 139.11/6....Bullish now, sell at Resistance
--------------------------------------------------------
R: 139.33 / 139.64-66 / 138.96
S: 138.80-139.06 / 138.40-55 / 138.07
The Euro-Yen currently is at an important resistance at around 139.20-33. Once 139.35 is crossed, then there should be a rally towards the trend line resistance (formed by joining 13th Dec 05 high and 5th Jan 06 high) at 139.64-66. A test of this resistance is expected later on during the day. Incase of a fall, there is a cluster of support at around 138.80-139.06. Below this, there could be a fall towards 138.40-55. The immediate bias is bullish.

Order:
Sell EUR 20K at 139.56, SL 139.81, TP 139.12




$-Swiss @ 1.2772/77....Bearish for the week
-------------------------------------------
R: 1.2760-67 / 1.2785-96 / 1.2842-53
S: 1.2709 / 1.2654-58 /
There has been little activity so far in the day for $-Swiss. It seems to have taken support near 1.2740 on the trend line (4-Hourly charts, joining 1.2675 and 1.2728).Below this then there is a very important support coming in at the 200-Day MA, at 1.2709. A clear break below 1.2709 is needed for a fall towards 1.2658 levels, which is the projected low for the day. Immediate Resistance is at 1.2785-96. If that breaks, there could be a rally towards 1.2842-53.

Right now, we are not clear whether there's a buying opportunity or a selling opportunity intra-day, so we stay out. The outlook remains bearish for the week.


Cable @ 1.7688/93...Resistance has held. Watch 1.7650
-------------------------------------------------
R: 1.7723-27 / 1.7756 / 1.7800
S: 1.7684 / 1.7655-38
The pair has dipped below the support at 1.7723 (mentioned in the morning)after a test of 1.7800 level during the day. The resistances at 1.7800, 1.7811 (14-Dec-05 high) and at 1.7826 (31-Oct-05 high) have held the pair down. Hence, we now expect a test of an important support at 1.7665-1.7650 either today or tomorrow.

If the support holds, the Cable rally from 1.7186, the 03-Jan-06 low has some chances of continuing to 1.7800 and above. A fall below 1.7650 could lead to a fall to 1.7500 and below, turning the sentiment bearish.




Aussie @ 0.7548/53....Watch Support at 0.7528
------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7584 / 0.7601-05
S: 0.7536 / 0.7523-10 / 0.7478-65
The intraday spike above the 200-Day MA (0.7564) today did not translate into any further rise and the instead the pair remains indecisive between 0.7542-0.7584. While the support at 0.7536-28 holds today, there would still be chances of a test of and upmove past 0.7600 in a couple of days. However a fall below 0.7528 might negate the upside and trigger a fall towards 0.7450 and 0.7400. Watching Support at 0.7528 just now, will either buy or sell tomorrow, depending on whether the Support holds or breaks.




Happy Trading!

 

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