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Forex Trading StrategiesUSDJPY takes out stops above 115.00 in Asia
The pair traded above 115.20, but the pair still needs to break 115.60 resistance to give reason to trade the upside.
MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
Consumer Confidence for Dec expected at 48.0 reported at 46.7. Consumer Confidence Households (Dec) also lower than expected at 46.5 down from the previous 48.2.
Housing lending to owner-occupiers rise 0.4%, a touch below market expectations of +0.7%, and a bit stronger than our flat forecast. Investment lending fell 3.7%, so overall, will be a bit of a retracement after a few strong months.
The NZIER Q4 business survey suggests the negative outlook for domestic trading activity is consistent with a fall in seasonally adjusted GDP in the December quarter. Our assessment, against y/y real GDP growth, suggests the outlook for domestic trading activity is consistent with real GDP falling by around 1% y/y mid-2006 i.e. a probable recession.
NZ REVIEW: NZIER QSBO Q4 gen bus confidence net -61% from -32% Q3 - worse than expected. A net 9% of firms expect their own trading activity to decline in the next three months - the most negative figure recorded for nearly 8 years.
THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
• 9:30 AM CPI MoM (Dec) expected to have increased 0.4% while YoY to have gained 2.0%.
• 9:30 AM Core CPI YoY (Dec) expected to be at 1.5% unchanged from prev period.
• 9:30 AM RPI MoM (Dec) expected to be at 0.4% slightly higher than the previous 0.2%. YoY expected at 2.3%.
7:00 AM CPI MoM (Dec F) expected at 0.8% whereas YoY expected at 2.1%
• 1:30 PM Leading Indicators MoM (Dec) expected at 0.4% which is slightly higher than the previous 0.3%
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
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