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Tuesday January 17, 2006 - 12:43:23 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 17-Jan-2006...1232 GMT

Euro @ 1.2072/5....Range trade continues
-----------------------------------------
R: 1.2107 / 1.2137-47 / 1.2177-83
S: 1.2050 / 1.2034 / 1.2005
The Euro continues to whipsaw within a wide range of 1.2005-2185 and a narrower range of 1.2050-2150. Quite likely we'll see a bounce from the 1.2035-05 region after the fall earlier in the day. Not keen on trying to trade the range, staying out.


$-Yen @ 115.20/4....Looking to buy again
------------------------------------------
R: 115.45-63 / 116.05
S: 114.92 / 114.55
We went Long at 114.85 but were stopped out at 114.70 as the market dipped to 114.57 intra-day. Should have kept a wider Stop Loss. As the market is now trading well above 115.00, the chances of a rise towards 116.00 are increasing. Placing a Buy Order again.

Order:
Buy $25K at 114.85, SL 114.47, TP 115.60


Euro-Yen @ 139.10/15....Unsure, staying out
---------------------------------------------------
R: 139.33 / 139.65 / 139.86-96
S: 138.90-139.05 / 138.41-63 / 138.21
The Euro-Yen has been yo-yoing between 139.00-50 through the day so far. It currently faces a resistance at around 139.65, from the trendline mentioned earlier in the morning. Above 139.65, we have 200-MA Resistance on the 4-hourly at 139.86. The supports are coming in at 139.00 below which a fall towards 138.66 may be possible. Not sure which way to trade, staying out.




$-Swiss @ 1.2832/7....Staying out
------------------------------------------
R: 1.2840 / 1.2862-76 / 1.2903
S: 1.2775 / 1.2728 / 1.2675
The $-Swiss had gone up only to find sellers on rallies to 1.2840. Support on the 4-Hourly charts at 1.2740. Currently ranged between 1.2740-2840 on an intra-day basis. Fall below the support of 1.2740 suggests a target of 1.2650 initially. A rise above 1.2840 suggests a target of 1.2900 on the upside. It is tempting to trade one way or the other, but when the outlook does a flip-flop from the morning to the evening, it is best to stay out.


Cable @ 1.7613/8....Bearish
---------------------------------
R: 1.7658 / 1.7674-87 / 1.7713
S: 1.7593-88 / 1.7561-58 / 1.7534-20
The cable has turned further bearish during the day as expected and has tested the 1.7600 level. This could result in a fall to 1.7500 over the rest of the week, with possible selling interest to be seen on bounces. Immediate support is at 1.7593-77 and immediate Resistance is at 1.7642.

Missed selling at 1.7716 a few hours back, don't want to chase the market.




Aussie @ 0.7524/29...Tempted to sell, but waiting
--------------------------------------------------
R: 0.7547-59 / 0.7582
S: 0.7519 / 0.7493 / 0.7481-68
The pair continues to be indecisive between 0.7515-0.7563 today, with the 200-Day MA at 0.7563 still proving to be a tough level to break on the upside. At the same time, Support at 0.7515 is also holding. Below that, the day’s projected Max Low is 0.7493. Bias is bearish and we are tempted to sell, but think it might be better to see a confirmed Close below 0.7493 before getting in. In such a case, the Aussie could fall towards 0.7460 or lower.




Happy Trading!


 

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