Wednesday January 18, 2006 - 11:50:44 GMT
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Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
5% in 48 hours...hmmm!
Hmmm…the Nikkei wiped away 5% in 48 hours! US stock market volatility is tame!
Chart of vix
And seems to be discounting a lot of good things to come...
Chart of spu
But, the US economy does seem to be turning over a bit…crude prices back near $70 will likely help that process….
This from BCA: “Pipeline price pressures have rolled over. Overall activity is still holding up, but underlying consumption trends are softening. A broad-based economic slowdown should unfold in the first half of the year.”
Given the level of US stocks and low volatility, it doesn’t seem a broad-based slowdown is discounted in the price. It could get very interesting if the move in Japan is the beginning. For overall, it is still a liquidity game—liquidity being the bubble-driver for metals and stocks.
Gold is down 8 buck this morning…hmmm! Be careful out there.
Black Swan Capital
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