User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday January 18, 2006 - 22:15:09 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: No Surprises Leads to Status Quo in Dollar

DailyFX Fundamentals 01-18-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• No Surprises Leads to Status Quo in Dollar
• Euro Holds onto Gains on Hawkish Comments from ECB Issing
• BoJ Rate Hike Not Expected Anytime Soon After Stock Market Slide

US Dollar

To our disappointment, there was not as much excitement in the market today as we had hoped. Softer inflation numbers and a near in line Treasury International Capital flow report along with an unsurprising Federal Reserve Beige book report kept the dollar tightly wound up against the Euro. With limited data releases on Thursday and Friday, fundamentally it seems that there is little hope for a breakout move this week. However, technically, prices and trading ranges are getting much more consolidated which makes some sort of breakout move is imminent. The inflation numbers released this morning indicated that headline consumer price inflation fell 0.1 percent in the month of December while core consumer prices increased an as expected 0.2 percent. After seeing last week’s higher producer prices, it is clear that companies are still having difficulties passing over higher fuel costs. The combination of tamer consumer price inflation and the possibility that the bottom-line of companies may be hit by the higher costs and lower revenues is one reason why some believe that the Federal Reserve may be at the end of its tightening cycle. The Beige Book report indicated that many Fed districts saw continued growth at year-end with tight labor markets and moderate wage increases. Although there are signs of “some cooling” in the housing market, sectors such as manufacturing saw improvements. The NAHB Housing Index confirmed the lack of growth with the index remaining stagnant at 34 month lows. The market is interpreting no news as good news, especially with net foreign inflows, as measured by the Treasury International Capital report coming at $89.1 billion, which is slightly better than the market’s $85.0 billion forecast. Even though this is less than the previous month’s $104.2 billion rise, it is still a strong report. The details indicate that the UK was a big buyer, but the rumor in the market is that an OPEC nation may have used a UK bank to buy Treasuries. China and Japan were small buyers of dollar denominated assets, which suggests that reserve diversification may not have occurred in November. However as we have postulated yesterday, what a strong number will do is push trade deficit concerns back to the sidelines.


The Euro ended the US session virtually unchanged against the dollar. Economic data released overnight was mixed once again. The French current account deficit ballooned from - EUR 3.8 billion to – EUR 4.1 billion. The market was actually calling for the deficit to narrow. Meanwhile industrial production for the entire Eurozone accelerated by 1.3 percent in November after falling 0.7 percent the previous month. This caught the market by surprise, as some traders may have been banking on an even weaker than consensus release after seeing Italy’s dismal numbers. However, German growth led the pack as the region benefited from the stimulative effects of a weaker Euro. There was also a bit of confusion in the markets today as MF-Dow incorrectly quoted ECB Member Bini as saying that he favors more rate increases. Bini quickly came onto the wires denying such a comment. Yet, with subsequent comments by ECB Issing, the central bank’s overall hawkish bias cannot be denied. Issing said that the ECB does not need to wait for Staff forecasts before making their decision and as far as he can tell, recent data indicates that there is “nothing to show a break in economic recovery” and that “asset prices are overvalued in some areas.” More speculation of central banks on the bid in the EUR/USD has also helped the Euro hold onto its gains.

British Pound

The British pound however was not able to maintain its strength against the dollar. Slightly weaker economic data continues to give some sterling traders a stronger reason to bet on further losses in the GBP. The three month average earnings including bonuses grew at a slower pace of 3.4 percent in the month of November, which compares to the market’s 3.6 percent forecast. The ILO unemployment rate also ticked higher from 4.9 percent to 5.0 percent. The number of unemployed increased for the 11th consecutive month, but on a positive note, the increase was slightly less than expected. The British pound’s relative underperformance against the dollar compared to the Euro is primarily due to different biases of the respective central banks, helping to lift EUR/GBP.

Japanese Yen

The Japanese Yen strengthened across the board against the majors despite a 464 point drop in the Nikkei. Talk of margin calls forcing investors to buy Yen in order to cover their losses has caught the market by surprise. A corporate scandal involving Livedoor, a Japanese high tech company caused such a big drop in the stock market that trading had to halt on the Tokyo Stock Exchange. With such a sharp dive in the stock market, there is an even smaller hope that the Japanese government would allow the central bank to raise interest rates any time soon. Just today, MoF Watanabe said that they would need more than one or two consumer price increases to warrant a rate hike. Japanese economic data was also softer than expected with the leading economic index falling to 54.5 percent from 60.0 percent. Given that the strong rise in the Yen was attributed to forced repatriation related to equity market losses, the question is then whether the move is real. Judging from the recent turn in data and the ramification that the stock market’s slide has on interest rates and the economy, the sustainability of the Yen’s rise appears unlikely, at least for the time being.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

Trading Ideas for 12 March 2018

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 12 Mar 2018
A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction
Tue 13 Mar 2018
A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey
AA 12:30 US- CPI
A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction
Wed 14 Feb 2018
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction
Thu 15 Mar 2018
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI
A 12:15 US- Industrial Production
Fri 16 Mar 2018
A 10:00 EZ- final HICP
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,
Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105