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Thursday January 19, 2006 - 12:26:18 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 19-Jan-2006.... GMT 1214

Euro @ 1.2078/81....Range trade continues
R: 1.2148-63 / 1.2191
S: 1.2073 / 1.2050
Still sideways. Range for today 1.2050-2148.

$-Yen @ 115.25/9....Holding Long
R: 115.43-9 / 115.70-87
S: 115.16-01 / 114.75
Currently Supported at 115.16 on the 4-hour chart. Hoping for a rally towards 115.60 while the Support holds. Good Resistance in the 115.70-87 region, don't expect it to break today. On the downside, a fall below 115.00 could trigger a decline towards 114.35

$25K Long at 114.90, SL 114.90 (up from 114.80), TP 115.53 (down from 115.60).

Euro-Yen @ 139.21/6....Indecisive
R: 139.42-56 /
S: 138.97-84 /
The Resistances at 139.56 and 139.70 have remained intact so far today. Support at 138.97-84 could be tested. If that ALSO breaks, the Cross could become bearish, targeting 138.48, maybe lower. While it remains above 138.97 right now, it should be ranged between 138.85-139.56. Bullish above 139.70. No trades right now.

$-Swiss @ 1.2860/5...Longer term view
R: 1.2920 / 1.3010
S: 1.2670 / 1.2520
Since there is little change from the morning view, we look at a more medium term picture. It has fallen 4.61% from the Nov-05 High of 1.3288 to the 1.2675 Low on 06-Jan-06, a level last seen in Oct-05. The 200-day MA (now 1.2721) has been providing Support right through this month. The market has also been trading up-and-down along a long term trendline joining the 1.1483 Low (14-Mar-05) with the 1.2238 Low (05-Sep-05) on the Daily Candlestick chart.

The critical Support now comes now at 1.2670. In case that Support breaks it could trigger a fall towards1.2250. The strong resistances on the upside are present is 1.2914-28. The picture could turn bullish again on a rise beyond 1.2918.

In the interim, it could trade between 1.2670 and 1.2900. While below 1.30 the overall longer-term bias is bearish.

Cable @ 1.7560/5....Holding Short
R: 1.7611-28 / 1.7646-53 / 1.7679
S: 1.7538 / 1.7517-04 / 1.7489
The pair has broken below an important support at 1.7587 during the day and is likely to test the range bottom at 1.7500 (of a wider range of 1.7500-1.7800 seen from the last few weeks). This also suggests that the Cable rally seen from 1.7186 (03-Jan-06 low) could be doubtful and may turn bearish to 1.7400 in case of a break below 1.7500 by tomorrow. If the Cable fails to fall below 1.7500 this week, there are chances of it rising back to 1.7675-7700 next week.

For today minor support are seen at 1.7538-22, which might provide for a bounce back, but resistances await at 1.7587 and 1.7630. This could keep the pair with a bearish bias for the rest of the day.

GBP 15K short at 1.7570, SL 1.7630, TP 1.7520 (Up from 1.7510).

Aussie @ 0.7446/51....Increasingly bearish
R: 0.7476-85 / 0.7501-11
S: 0.7450-32 / 0.7424-16
The Support at 0.7450-40 mentioned in the morning has provided a minor bounce back, but found sellers again at 0.7485. This suggests the pair could trade with a bearish bias today. The Aussie is already trading at its projected low on the Weekly chart. Further statistical Support is in the 0.7416-21 region. We anticipate a break below these levels over the next 1-3 days. If so, there would be chances of falling to 0.7375. The Aussie rally seen from 0.7238 (28-Dec-05 low) now appears to be reversing to bearish gradually, to target 0.7325 in a few days.

While above 0.7426, however, we have to factor in chances of intraday bounces to 0.7485 and 0.7511.

AUD 30K short at 0.7490, SL 0.7480 (down from 0.7510), TP 0.7430 (up from 0.7370, to respect the Support at 0.7416-21).

Sell AUD 30K at 0.7404, SL 0.7435, TP 0.7360

Happy Trading!


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