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Friday July 2, 2004 - 09:44:06 GMT -

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Yen bounces to and fro between major Fibs creating Inverted Head (107.00) and Shoulders (108.00/35)

DailyFX Technical Report 07-02-2004

You guessed it; Swissie trades near Neckline (1.2435/50)
Yen bounces to and fro between major Fibs creating Inverted Head (107.00) and Shoulders (108.00/35)

Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD has yet to break out of the triangular formation drafted over the past 15 sessions or so. The pair presently trades at the monthly pivot at 1.2165. First monthly pivot S/R comes in at 1.2375 and 1.1976 respectively. Daily pivot support coincides with the monthly equilibrium. The pair looks tired throughout Asia trading, as sellers seem to be the dominant party. Regression trend studies remain inconclusive while the pair trades at the edge of both the macro (11/00-present) and intermediate (1/04-present) trends.

The USD/JPY has speculators scratching their heads (like usual) as the 61.8% retracement of 103.45-115.00 (107.85) served as the tipping point for longs. The pair seems to have found a top at the monthly pivot (109.40) and the 100-day SMA (109.10) and EMA confluence. A move above here this particular level would be momentous. Recent lows create local support at 107.00 with the more significant levels further still at the monthly pivot of 106.60. The hangman (7/01) on the daily chart combined with the large wicks surrounding is indicative of great selling prowess at the moment. This fact could pressure the bulls into submission or could inspire a massive stop loss updraft. The 200-day SMA comes in at 108.55 and could provide intraday support and or trading opportunities.

The GBP/USD presently trades just below the monthly pivot level of 1.8235 and the 100-day SMA (1.8205). Daily oscillators are extremely neutral with intraday 240-minute indication slightly oversold. The 38.2% retracement of 1.9125-1.17490 and intraday lows made on 6/14 and 6/24 (1.8115) could be noteworthy in the support side. On the resistance side the 50% retracement of 1.9125-1.17490 (1.8305) seems fairly significant, as the rally had failed here 1200 GMT on 6/28.

USD/CHF presently rests just below the 76.4% retracement level of 1.3610-1.2140 (1.2485). The neckline (1.2435/50) remains valid as it provided solid support in Asia trading. On the resistance side we see the regression trend line and the big figure of 1.2600 as a large obstacle over the near term. Intraday proprietary S/R indicates 1.2585 as the nearest resistance with more levels further still, way up at 1.2725. Naturally a break of the ultra significant neckline would force us to reconstruct our analysis.


Comment from 06/02
On 5/14, USD/JPY rallied to a high of 114.85 (slightly higher than our 114.30/70 reversal area), before retracing to a low of 109.02 on 5/31, 583 pts lower. The market is now stalling after the extensive move lower. The outlook has turned slightly negative after the break below 110.50/60, the swing high / 38.2% retracement of 103.40-114.90 and May 4 high. However, bulls still have a chance at a move higher above 109.02, the 200-day SMA and 5/31 low. A rally above 111.96, the June 4 high would expose 112.15, the May 27 high and 50% retracement of 120.67-103.42. Sustained strength above 112.25/35, the 20-day SMA / 50% fibo of 114.85-109.00 and March 5 & 8 highs would give bulls the opportunity to target 114.85 May 14 top. A failure below 109.02 could inspire reversal players for a move towards the 100-day SMA and 61.8% fibo at 108.50/107.86.

The outlook is today clearly bearish since we broke the 109 S zone. Bears who missed the breakout retracement at 109.50/110 two days ago will no other choice but to wait for 109.80/110.20 in order to exploit the 100 SMA, 38.2% Fibo from the Aug - Apr bear wave and breakout pt now R. Below, bulls will probably try reversals at 106.50/107 thanks to the Low BB and 38.2% Fibo from the Mar - Apr bear wave. Please note that a sustained break below would open the door to the 104 level. Another level to keep in mind above is 112. Bears will try to exploit the High BB and 50% Fibo from the Aug-Apr bear wave.


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