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Monday January 23, 2006 - 12:39:41 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 23-Jan-2006....1232 GMT

Euro @ 1.2272/75....Can target 1.2325 and 1.2366
------------------------------------------------
R: 1.2325 / 1.2366
S: 1.2262-57 / 1.2237-23 / 1.2183
The Euro has risen past the projected high for today (1.2237). It may now target 1.2325 and 1.2366 while it stays above 1.2237-23. There can be no justification for being Short now. You can only choose between being Long or Neutral. How high can the Euro rise in the current move? If 1.2366 is broken, 1.2402 is a major Resistance.

Order:
Buy EUR 20K at 1.2272, SL 1.2212, TP 1.2340


$-Yen @ 114.29/33.....See 113.80 if 114.20 breaks
------------------------------------------------
R: 114.45 / 114.81
S: 114.10 / 113.77-65
Dollar-Yen has indeed fallen to 114.21, as suggested in the morning today. A further fall from here can target 113.77-65, which is a strong Trendline Support on the Daily Candles obtained by joining the lows at 108.77 (05-Sep), 108.96 (12-Sep) and 113.42 (01-Dec). But, since Euro-Yen is potentially bullish and 114.21 is the statistically projected Max Low for today, we cannot bet on a fall 114.20 immediately.

On the upside, there is Resistance at 114.45 initially and then at 114.81. In case the Support at 114.20 holds in the US session, a bounce towards 114.60 could well be seen.


Euro-Yen @ 140.27/32....Cautiously Bullish
------------------------------------------
R: 140.91 / 141.49
S: 139.85-65 / 139.50 / 139.32-44
The Euro-Yen dipped and is now rallying again, indicating buying on declines. Immediate Support at 140.10, then in the 139.85-65 region and finally at 139.50. The Resistances appear at 140.90, which is the projected high for the day, and then at 141.50, which lies on the upper trend line (4-Hourly, joining 138.79 of 12-Jan and 140.07 of 17-Jan). We expect buying on declines to continue for the cross. The overall intraday and the weekly bias are bullish.

Holding
EUR 20K at 140.20, SL 139.99 (up from 139.89), TP 140.77




$-Swiss @ 1.2605/10...Holding Short
----------------------------------
R: 1.2670 / 1.2700
S: 1.2554 / 1.2531 / 1.2502
The $-Swiss is in middle of a sell off currently, and has broken below most of its immediate supports and is trading at its lowest since 16-Sep-05. Now, the supports are coming in at 1.2554, which is the projected low for the next 3 days. Below that there could be a decline to 1.2502, which is the projected weekly low. On the upside the 200 Day-MA (1.2729) is now a support turned Resistance. On the 4-Hourly charts the resistances appear at 1.2670. The intraday and the weekly bias, both are bearish.

Holding:
$ 25K Short at 1.2617, SL 1.2681, TP 1.2570 (up from 1.2534)


Cable @ 1.7836/41....Resistance at 1.7874 ahead
------------------------------------------------
R: 1.7874 / 1.7900
S: 1.7823-11 / 1.7776 / 1.7748-41
The Cable fell to 1.7749 during the day (below the intraday support at 1.7764 mentioned in the morning) and has bounced strongly from there. The crucial Resistance now is at 1.7874 (200-day MA) a break above which could trigger a rally to 1.8000 later this week. A strong close above 1.7800 today might provide support for a break above 1.7874 resistance by tomorrow. As the pair has risen above a range of 1.7500-1.7800 today, the down side seems to be limited to 1.7800. A fall below 1.7800 if seen, may still find buying interest at 1.7748

Holding:
GBP 15K Long at 1.7775, SL 1.7745 (up from 1.7705), TP 1.7860

Order:
Buy GBP 15K at 1.7900, SL 1.7830, TP open




Aussie @ 0.7529/34....Resistance at 0.7558
------------------------------------------
R: 0.7555 / 0.7581
S: 0.7513-05 / 0.7496-81 / 0.7457-52
The Aussie rise seen during the day, finds an important resistance at 0.7558 (200-day MA), a level which might limit the up move of the day. For the pair to sustain its rise, a break above the immediate resistances at 0.7558 and then 0.7580 must be awaited. That said, the bias is with buying coming again at 0.7505 and 0.7485.




Happy Trading!



 

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