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Friday July 2, 2004 - 11:14:15 GMT -

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DailyFX US Open Market Brief 07-02-04

Payrolls Please

Non-Farm payrolls - the most important economic indicator of the month is once again upon us and as usual the European session is very quiet. The overnight ranges of EUR/USD and USD/JPY have been contained to 30 pips. According to Bloomberg survey economists predict a gain of 250K but within this average there is a variety of opinion. Argus Research expects the number to print at 195K while Citibank is calling for an increase of 300K. What happens if Argus is right? We may see some initial USD selling. However, EUR has already appreciated 150 pips over the last 2 days and given last night’s lackluster Euro-zone economic data, traders will be hard pressed to sustain a major EUR up move. Conversely, should the number flash 300K as Citibank projects, USD could enjoy a substantial rally as dollar bulls would now have two points of ammunition: 1). Larger than expected NFP gain is further evidence of strong US economic growth. 2). Higher payroll number will lead to additional Fed interest rate hikes, compressing the EUR/USD interest rate differential. Of course should the number come in materially worse as it did in December 2003 when in BLS reported only 1K increase - all bets are off.

Traders with a longer outlook, will focus on the quality rather than quantity of NFP numbers. Some analysts including, CIBC world markets have expressed concern that US economy is simply manufacturing a series of “McJobs” – low paying, small benefit service jobs that add little power to consumer spending. Having already spent their tax refunds and home equity loans, US consumers are now in critical need of wage growth. That’s why analysts will carefully peruse the average hourly earning component of the report. The median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg for this number stands at 0.3%. If the economists are correct then hourly wages would have grown by 2.3% over the past 12 months, materially better than the anemic 1.2% growth rate reported as recently as May, but still a full percentage point lower than the 3.2% average yearly wage increase US workers have enjoyed over the past 2 decades.

Key Overnight Developments

- Nikkei falls 1.4% in sympathy with US markets decline. Fails to hold critical 12,000 bull level
- Euro-zone PPI slightly higher than expected off large energy price spikes
- Markets quiet await US payroll data

FX Spot Overnight

- EUR range-bound 2140-2180 slightly hurt by upward PPI data
- JPY dragged by Nikkei slide moves above 109 off short squeeze stop running by dealers
- GBP quiet range trade but pierces 82 several times
- CHF trades back above 25 handle as USD finds support at 2470
Upcoming Events
12:30 GMT - (8:30 AM EST) USD Non-Farm Payrolls (Jun)
Expected at 250K, Previous 248K
Strong number would keep the US growth scenario intact.

12:30 GMT - (8:30 AM EST) USD Unemployment Rate (Jun)
Expected at 5.6%, Previous 5.6%
Most analysts expect no change in overall rate

14:00 GMT - (10:00 AM EST) USD Factory Orders (May)
Expected at –0.7%, Previous -1.7%
Decline in Durable Goods number leads most analysts to predict a decline in Factory Orders as well


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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
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A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
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AA 12:30 US- CPI
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