Tuesday January 24, 2006 - 11:24:15 GMT
Share This Story
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com
Different for the dollar?
“If the picture of the world which modern science draws comes anywhere near to the truth—in other words, in we have anything like ‘scientific knowledge’—then the conditions obtaining almost everywhere in the universe make the discovery of structural laws of the kind we are seeking—and thus the attainment of ‘scientific knowledge’—almost impossible.”
Karl Popper, The Aim of Science
The graphic below comparing past and forecasted real GDP growth between the US and Europe looks a bit optimistic for the US in 2006, especially if…
Source: The Wall Street Journal
…the yield curve is telling us something it typically tells us—slowdown—when it takes its current inverted shape…
The thing is, a lot smart people are expecting another Goldilocks year for the US economy. They say because of a conundrum-related hangover the yield curve is telling us something “different this time.” Gulp! “It’s different this time!” Those are words responsible for getting investors and speculators into a whole heap of trouble in the past.
Until proven otherwise, our belief system is conditioned on disappointment from the euro-zone despite reported budding optimism. But that could be the surprise this year. And we would suspect Germany would have to lead said surprise.
So maybe the move in the euro above 1.22 yesterday, along with move in US 2-year yields above 10-year yields is telling us things just might be different this year for the dollar.
Black Swan Capital
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."