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Tuesday January 24, 2006 - 13:14:15 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 24-Jan-2006....1257 GMT

Euro @ 1.2280/3....Could dip towards 1.2223
R: 1.2313-24 / 1.2355-66 / 1.2386
S: 1.2262 / 1.2238 / 1.2223-17
The Euro might dip towards 1.2223 or even lower in the US session tonight, before resuming it climb tomorrow, to target 1.2355-65. But, if it remains resolutely above 1.2248, then there would be chances of 1.2325 in the US session.

EUR 20K Long at 1.2272, SL 1.2212, TP 1.2360. Removing Buy Order at 1.2240.

$-Yen @ 114.54/59...Ranged? Slow decline? Up?
R: 114.79 / 114.94-115.01 / 115.44
S: 114.42 / 114.23-13 / 113.77
Currently Supported on the 4-hour at 114.42 and Resisted in the 114.85-95 and 115.01 region. Might not move at all today, but might explode on either side tomorrow - targeting 113.77-65 on the downside, or 115.45 on the upside. Alternatively, might slowly fall towards 113.89 over today and tomorrow and then bounce from there towards 115.45.

Overall, the Trendline obtained by joining the lows at 108.77 (05-Sep), 108.96 (12-Sep) and 113.42 (01-Dec) provides Support at 114.89. Below that, an even bigger Trendline on the Weekly Candles provides Support near 114.15. Do not expect this to break for a few days.

For today, anything (or nothing) is possible. So, staying out.

Euro-Yen @ 140.69/74...Consolidation/ ranged
R: 141.20 / 141.70
S: 140.48 / 140.08 / 139.80
The Euro-Yen had tried to break above a critical Resistance at 141.10 earlier in the day but has been unsuccessful. This has resulted in it going into a consolidation. It has also broken below its trendline (4-Hourly, joining 139.01 on 20th Jan and 140.09 on 23rd Jan). Some Support is coming in at 140.48, and then at 140.10. The intraday bias is now sideways. However in case of a break above 141.10 the bias would become bullish again.

$-Swiss @ 1.2607/12....Still Bearish
R: 1.2652-68 / 1.2700 / 1.2726
S: 1.2607 / 1.2550 / 1.2500
The $-Swiss is in middle of a bounce back. The current bounce, which commenced from 1.2556, may now extend itself to its Resistance at 1.2652-68, before running out of steam. On the other hand, the Supports come in at 1.2550, below which there may be another big decline. The overall intraday bias is of a bounce back till 1.2652-68. No orders/ trades currently however, some more consolidation is needed.

Cable @ 1.7852/57....Buy small dip
R: 1.7875-93 / 1.7947-57
S: 1.7801 / 1.7744-21
The Cable is currently consolidating ON its 200-day MA after its rise yesterday. This indicates that the market needs some more time before the Cable again moves up with strength. The Support lies at 1.7800. In case that is broken there can be a deeper correction to 1.7744-21. The Resistances lie at 1.7875. Once that is broken there may be a rally to 1.7947, the projected high for the day. The bias for the day is range bound. However, in case of a rally above 1.7900, we would like to buy into it.

Buy GBP 15K at 1.7833, SL 1.7787, TP 1.7970

Aussie @ 0.7496/7501...Watching support at 0.7482
R: 0.7507-19 / 0.7550
S: 0.7482 / 0.7450
The Aussie dipped in the afternoon to 0.7482 (mentioned in the morning), but has bounced back. This now increases the significance of the Support. Below 0.7482, there can be a decline towards 0.7450. The Resistances come in at 0.7507-19, above which there could be a rally towards 0.7550, which is the statistically projected high for the day. The Intraday bias for the pair is range bound. Note, the other commodity currency, the NZD, has already dipped to a new low against the Dollar. That may act as dampener for the Aussie as well.

Happy Trading!


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