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Wednesday January 25, 2006 - 11:25:45 GMT
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Still awaiting a continuation in the weak USD trend and break to new highs above 1.2320 in EUR/USD. GBP in focus today with BOE Minutes and Q4 GDP.

CAD surprisingly resilient considering dovish BOC yesterday and easing oil prices.

• Canada's Bank of Canada raised rates by 25 bp as expected, bringing the rate to 3.50%. The accompanying statement indicated that further rate increases would be "modest"
• Germany Brandenburg CPI for Jan. out at -0.3% vs. +0.9% in December
• US Richmond Fed Index for January out at -4 vs. +5 expected
• US Weekly Consumer Confidence rose to -9 from -13 the previous week
• Australia Consumer Prices in Q4 rose +0.5% vs. +0.6% expected
• China's Producer Price Index for December was out at 3.2% on a year-on-year basis vs. 3.0% expected and Purchasing Price Index was out at 5.0%.
• China Consumer Price Index for December out at 1.6% vs. 1.4%
• China Retail Sales in December rose 12.5% (YoY) vs. 12.7% expected
• China Value Added Industry grew 16.5% (YoY) vs. 16.4% expected

Market moves: the JPY was weak again overnight - with EUR/JPY to new recent highs and USD/JPY back above 115.00 .

The JPY was weak again overnight as recent high crude prices and perhaps fear of slowing global growth are wearing off on the currency. Another JPY bearish development, though one that saw no reaction from the market, was the release of the Bank of Japan minutes overnight. These minutes seem to indicate that few BOJ members expected the CPI to remain on a rising trend. No decisive rhetoric emerged on the status of the bank's quantitative easing policy, in which cash is pumped into the financial system.

The market seems to be in waiting mode here, as the range in EUR/USD has been remarkably tight since the swift move through the 1.2180 resistance. One hopes that we will begin to see a real trend continue to develop rather than another nasty bout of range trading, the likes of which we've seen on three occasions already since early November. The upcoming event risks that determine the path from here on out are the first estimate of US Q4 GDP on Friday and of course next Tuesday's FOMC meeting - which may see the final rate hike from the Fed this time around. Today the only US data of note is the US Existing Home Sales data from last month - a key indicator on the housing market. While the last two months of data have shown drops - the rising "trend" hasn't really been broken and we continue to underline the importance of the US housing market for the economic view in the US - the idea being that once the housing market is clearly in a "cooling" trend, US growth will follow. The only other number today is the energy storage data - which seems almost irrelevant considering that US supplies are massively above their five year norms even as oil prices recently challenged all time highs. Oil is clearly looking at other risks than the short term supply situation.

We focus on the JPY today as we'd like to see USD/JPY lower to help out the weak USD view and USD/JPY isn't cooperating at the moment. 114.20 begins to look like confirmation of the downtrend there. Meanwhile, resistance doesn't come in until 115.60 now.

Looking aside from the USD, the most interesting data points today are the release of the Germany IFO at 0900 GMT and the Bank of England minutes at 0930 and UK Q4 GDP at the same time. The market has been very aggressive in removing the projection of a BOE cut - will the minutes justify this? Seems the risk side is down for GBP unless the GDP is a big upside surprise (that's a tough one to imagine after the recent data - expectations are for a QoQ increase of 0.5%)

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

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Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
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