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Thursday January 26, 2006 - 10:58:39 GMT
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Forex Trading Strategies

USD continues stronger on interest rate moves. It's make or break time for the recent USD sell-off today and tomorrow.

RBNZ statement gives NZD some relief overnight. AUD also strong on rate moves.

MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION
• US Existing Home Sales for December out at 6.60M vs. 6.87M expected
• US Energy Inventories showed robust builds in crude and major products. This pushed crude oil sharply lower to the 66 dollar area.
• New Zealand's RBNZ left its rate unchanged at 7.25% as expected, but its language on the threat of inflation suggested a less dovish stance than the market perhaps expected.
• Japan's Merchandise Trade Balance for December was at ¥914.0B vs. ¥950B expected and the Adjusted number was at ¥611.2 vs. ¥732.8B expected
• Japan Corporate Service Prices fell -0.4% (YoY) vs. -0.2% expected

Market moves: USD maintained its strength overnight, with EUR/USD bottoming at 1.2240 and USD/JPY above 115.50.

THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION
A very disappointing Existing Home Sales number yesterday from the US - which saw the lowest level of activity (on a seasonally adjusted basis) since March of 2004. This is bearish for the US economic picture going forward (and those numbers will likely continue to weaken if we see the long rates edging higher), but the market clearly isn't focused on this right now, as it is the large rate moves that are garnering the most interest and seem to be driving the currency markets. Much credit for the US rate moves was given to a large afternoon auction of US 2-year notes which saw a low bid-to-cover ratio and low interest from foreign central banks.

The last 24 hours has seen a remarkable shift to stronger rate moves higher in the US, outpacing those in Europe. And if that continues, the weak USD view will be under attack (though the flipside of this argument is that low foreign interest in US paper is bearish for the USD given the US' external imbalances even if rates are squeezed higher as a result). The mixed signals makes us prefer a "optimize your entries" strategy unless we see the rate view ease and/or confirmation of the recent weak USD move. By the close of trading on Friday (after the US GDP figures for Q4), the USD move will be either confirmed or denied. The large investment banks seem to be very divided on the direction, with plenty of news of two-way traffic creating a muddled picture.

Up today we have US Durable Goods Orders for December - expected at 1.0% vs. 4.4% in November and also +1.0% ex Transportation. The Bank of Canada releases it's monthly report today. We continue to scratch our heads at the resilience of CAD short term as the rate view and fall in crude prices continue to favor a weaker CAD: impressive.

Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrix’s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.

Risk warning
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.

Saxo Bank
www.saxobank.com

 

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Wed 18 Oct
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



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