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Friday January 27, 2006 - 04:32:58 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 27-Jan-2006.... 1215 GMT

Euro @ 1.2176/79....Stopped out of Long. Watching
R: 1.2219-21 / 1.2236 / 1.2252
S: 1.2162 / 1.2143 / 1.2129-19
We've just been stopped out at 1.2172 from the Long entered at 1.2232. The market is testing the immediate Support at 1.2162-54. If that breaks, the Euro could even fall towards 1.2130. Remember, the 200-day MA is at 1.2154. So, if the Support holds, it would be a good buy later today or on Monday.

$-Yen @ 116.83/7....Took Profit on Long. Watching
R: 117.07 / 117.23
S: 116.61 / 116.30-26
We've just got profit at 116.80 on Long entered at 116.42 in the morning. Further upside from here cannot be denied and 117.30-50 might be possible, either today or Monday. Then why have we exited a profitable Long position? Because there is a bit of statistical Resistance near 117.00-07 and today is Friday. Watching for a while now.

Euro-Yen @ 142.24/29....Bullishness intact
R: 142.50 / 142.95
S: 142.01-141.90 / 141.70-50
The Euro-Yen has been consolidating nicely after the big gains it has made in the last few days. We expect the trading range to be 141.70-142.50. The Support now comes in at 142.01-141.90 region, below which there could be a decline towards 141.70-50. At the moment, it is unlikely to go much further below that. The Resistances now come in at 142.50, and above that at 142.95, which is the projected high for the day. The intraday bias is sideways, but the weekly bias is bullish.

$-Swiss @ 1.2749/53....Strong Resistances overhead
R: 1.2736-52 / 1.2786-97 / 1.2815
S: 1.2686 / 1.2664-44
The $-Swiss is seeing a good recovery and now is in the resistance zone of 1.2736-52. The 200-Day MA stands at 1.2746. Above this level the resistance comes in at 1.2797, which is the projected high for the day.. Now, a critical level on the downside is at 1.2686, below which there could be a fall towards 1.2664-44. The 4-Hourly charts has become neutral but the weekly bias remains bearish.

Sell $25K at 1.2797, SL 1.2847, TP 1.2737

Cable @ 1.7769/74...Look for 1.7730 if 1.7759 breaks
R: 1.7818-38 / 1.7878
S: 1.7748-24 / 1.7693-80
The Cable continues to show weakness and has tested the support at 1.7759 (mentioned in the morning). A bounce back if seen, may still find sellers and make the 1.7759 support vulnerable to break today. If so, further fall to 1.7730 is likely to be seen today with chances of testing 1.7700 (trend line support coming from 03-Jan-06 low 1.7186, joining the 20-Jan-06 low 1.7534). On the other hand failure to dip below 1.7759 support might cause the pair to remain ranged between 1.7756-1.7825 for larger part of the day.

On the whole the Cable has eroded most of itís gains seen from 1.7701-1.7885 on Monday this week Staying out for today no trades.

Aussie @ 0.7522/27....Ranged with a bearish bias
R: 0.7563-79 / 0.7602
S: 0.7514-04 / 0.7490-76
The pair continues to trade within the range of 0.7496-0.7563 (seen from the last couple of days) and as expected found strong support at 0.7504 for the day. In case of an intraday rise the pair might find sellers again, thus limiting the upside today also. Hence there are greater chances of the pair being in range for today. A break below the support at 0.7504-0.7496 looks doubtful atleast for today and may see some intraday buying coming on dips to the support.

AUD 30K short at 0.7540, SL 0.7565 (Down from 0.7570), TP 0.7515 (Up from 0.7500).

Happy Trading!


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