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Monday January 30, 2006 - 11:30:11 GMT
Mellon Bank Foreign Exchange - https://fx.mellon.com/

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Mellon FX Daily - European Edition

Key Points
• USD continues to recover – FOMC meeting eyed.
• FOMC may be non-committal given upcoming change in chairmanship.
• US data releases also important this week.
• USD-JPY stopped by resistance at 117.44 – 118.16 next level.
• US core PCE prices feature today.

Market Outlook

Almost back to square one it would seem for EUR-USD after the initial move higher seen last week. The break above the 200-day moving average last Monday has not been sustained, reflecting market uncertainty about background interest rate arguments. Indeed, having made the move lower, there is a fair chance of this extending down further towards the 100-day moving average (currently at 1.1974). Net IMM spec longs as of last Tuesday had reached 37,464 contracts, up over 16k on the previous week, confirming the backdrop to the liquidation risk that developed on Thursday and Friday.

However, as long as the 100-day moving average holds, short-term accounts will likely retain optimism about the prospects for EUR-USD, so this will be key in the next couple of weeks. Unless there are very strong or weak data releases out of the US this week, the market is likely to be tentative about forming any dramatic conclusions about FOMC policy until Bernanke’s semi-annual Monetary Policy Testimony on February 15. This week’s FOMC meeting may be fairly non-committal, given that they will not want to be seen to be pre-empting the conclusions of the committee under a new chairmanship. There is an outside chance that this will be seen as dovish (and this may see EUR-USD trading up a little in advance), but the market should be able to appreciate the reasons for such a stance. The tone of the week’s data will be as, if not more, significant perhaps. Key for intra-day movement today will be which side of the overnight range – 1.2085-1.2115 – breaks first. Core PCE prices data will be closely watched to see whether Friday’s strength in the quarterly number was anything serious (see below for preview).

USD-JPY continues to prosper, with the next technical level (117.44 – 50% retracement of Dec to Jan downmove) being touched overnight. A break here would leave risk up to 118.16 (high from Dec 30).

Day Ahead
US – personal income and expenditure data is due today, along with the latest monthly core PCE price index. The latter has been fairly subdued since the strength seen in Q1, although the stronger than expected showing in the Q4 number on Friday (+2.2% annualised) suggests some upward revisions to November and October or downward revisions to the Q3 base. Upward revisions to October and November would suggest to the market that the FOMC will still be seeing inflation as a threat.

Diary
Data/event EDT Consensus*

NO Retail sales (Dec) m/m 09.00 +0.8%
US Personal income (Dec) m/m 13.30 +0.4%
US PCE (Dec) m/m 13.30 +0.7%
US Core PCE price index (Dec) m/m 13.30 +0.2%
US Core PCE price index (Dec) y/y 13.30 +1.8%
CA Industrial PI (Dec) m/m 13.30 +0.4%
CA Raw materials PI (Dec) m/m 13.30 +1.5%
JP Unemployment rate (Dec) 23.30 4.5%
JP Job-to-applicants ratio (Dec) 23.30 1.00
JP Employment (Dec) 23.30 -550k last
JP PCE workers (Dec) y/y 23.30 +2.5%
AU Private sector credit (Dec) m/m 00.30 +1.0%

Latest data Actual Consensus*
JP Ind prod (Dec, prel) m/m +1.4% +1.8%
* Consensus unless stated

2005, Mellon Financial Corporation Note: Although obtained from sources believed by us to be reliable, Mellon Financial Corporation and its affiliates cannot guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information upon which this report is based. This report does not purport to disclose the risks or benefits of entering into particular transactions and should not be construed as advice in any specific instance. The views in this report constitute our judgement as of this date and are subject to change without notice.
Ian Gunner 44 20 7163 5996 06.40 EDT Monday May 31 2005

 

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