User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Sunday May 2, 2004 - 08:08:24 GMT
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forecast for FX Majors 3rd May 2004

General Market Conditions

The Dollar remained pretty much contained on Friday and the first part of today should continue to see tight ranges but we look to see the Dollar weaken by the end of the day. In the overall picture we continue to look for the Dollar to weaken towards 1.2710 Swissie, 1.2075 and then 1.2160 and as long as 1.7825 breaks then 1.7880-00 seems possible against the British Pound. The strength against the Japanese Yen has reached the 110.65 target but there does appear to be a good chance of seeing this move further towards 110.05-15 again, possibly 111.35 but we still feel a retest of 109.50 is still likely before further significant strength is possible. Have a profitable week.


USDJPY
Price: 110.50

Day View
Resistance: 110.70 ... 111.10 ... 111.35 ... 111.60
Support....: 110.20 ... 109.95 ... 109.65 ... 109.50

Bias: Possibly a move to 110.85-111.15 but then lower again

Bullish: The structure from 109.51 appears more corrective to us but there does seem to be room for one last move higher which we feel is most likely to stall in the 110.85-111.15 area. Any break there would cause a test of resistance at 111.35 and 111.60 but only above these areas would allow gains to become stronger towards 112.15-25.

Bearish: While the move higher from the 109.51 corrective low has been steady we still feel that the structure appears corrective and thus we look for a peak in the 110.85-111.15 area and for a move down to retest the 109.50 support once again. If this occurs after a test of the suggested resistance then we would consider the 109.20-50 area as potentially a good base for further gains.



Week View
Resistance: 111.15 ... 111.60 ... 112.20 ... 113.25
Support....: 109.20 ... 108.70 ... 107.25 ... 106.30

While further gains have been seen these have struggled to remain above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and we still feel a little more consolidation is likely before further medium term strength. Schaff Trend Cycle has has been choppy over the past few days repeatedly moving back to 100 while FXS-RSI has been moving sideways in neutral territory. The medium to long term is still positive and we see the 108.30-70 area as good support.

Bullish: The short term picture is a little mixed but we retain an underlying medium term bullish stance. However, we do feel this may take a little while longer to develop and therefore resistance at 110.85-111.15 has a good chance of holding with the bigger risk for a drift back down to 109.50 at least with 108.70 providing further support. However, while this lower support holds we still consider the next move to be higher towards 113.25 at least and we feel a more aggressive target is possible at 114.25.

Bearish: The downside from 111.01 has been shallow thus far and we still feel there is more chance of a return to the 109.50 level once again. Further support is at 108.30-70 and this should provide a good base. Thus only below 108.00-30 would suggest a weaker performance and a return to 107.00-30.


Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 109.25 ... 111.15 ... 112.30 ... 114.90
Support....: 104.80 ... 103.30 ... 101.30 ..... 99.50

Having seen a move back above the 107.21-65 area the emphasis appears to be back on the upside in line with the bullish weekly and monthly cycles. We require 104.80-00 to hold for this and a move back above 109.25 would encourage gains up to 111.15, 112.32 with 114.90 being a higher target to keep in mind. Back below 104.80 would threaten the 103.42 low and call for losses down to 100.40.



EURUSD
Price: 1.1980

Day View
Resistance: 1.2000 ... 1.2025 ... 1.2050 ... 1.2070
Support....: 1.1955 ... 1.1925 ... 1.1910 ... 1.1890

Bias: Lower to 1.1920 again before higher

Bullish: Price found support at the lower end of our 1.1920-50 support range and has moved to 1.2012. However, we feel that the first move should be lower once again towards 1.1920. Thus only a direct break above 1.2025 would generate immediate gains up to 1.2070-90 at least and possibly as far as 1.2115 and 1.2160.

Bearish: Although price moved marginally above the 1.2000 resistance we still feel that this is part of a complex correction from the first peak at 1.1983 and the preferred short term outlook is for a drift lower over the day back towards 1.1890-1.1910 where we feel a base will form for further strength. Thus only below 1.1890 would see price drop towards 1.1840.



Week View
Resistance: 1.2070 ... 1.2160 ... 1.2200 ... 1.2310
Support....: 1.1890 ... 1.1840 ... 1.1760 ... 1.1570

Friday saw price remain above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud but without much momentum behind the move. Schaff TC1 has reached 100 while FXS-RSI has rallied to break marginally above overbought. With the break of 1.1950 the emphasis does appear to be to the upside with likely targets around 1.2070-90 and then 1.2160. However, watch this area closely for signs of reversal.

Bullish: The reversal from 1.1805 and break of 1.1950 signals a move to 1.2075 at least and possibly 1.2160-00. While this is possible price should remain above 1.1890-1.1920. At the target a further set back is possible and we shall need to see how deep this pullback bites. Further resistance is at 1.2335.

Bearish: The break of 1.1950 appears to reduce the chance of a direct resumption of the downtrend and may cause a period of choppy and erratic trading. We do feel that the initial move will be higher towards 1.2070 and probably up to 1.2160-00 at least. Thus only a break below 1.1890 would cause to re-assess and probably cause a move back to 1.1840 and then 1.1758-00 at least.


Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.2085 ... 1.2325 ... 1.2455 ... 1.2655
Support....: 1.1720 ... 1.1560 ... 1.1310 ... 1.1165

While the progress lower has been choppy we do feel that the repeated rejection around 1.2400-55 and the decline from there should now allow price to move down to the Double Top target around 1.1720-50 and we suspect now a stronger decline. Support at 1.1560 may hold for a while but we while 1.1820-50 holds we consider the larger risk to be lower to 1.1165 over the next 4-6 weeks.



USDCHF
Price: 1.2950

Day View
Resistance: 1.2985 ... 1.3020 ... 1.3045 ... 1.3090
Support....: 1.2945 ... 1.2920 ... 1.2890 ... 1.2870

Bias: Cautiously an initial move to 1.3025-45 but then lower

Bullish: A marginal break seen above 1.3000 and we feel this probably means we shall see price initially remain moderately strong and target the 1.3025-45 area before further weakness is seen. Thus only above 1.3050 would suggest a return to the 1.3095-00 highs and possibly 1.3125.

Bearish: Our overall view remains bearish but we feel that a move to 1.3025-45 is likely ahead of any stronger bearishness. Thus from 1.3025-45 or a direct break below 1.2920 we then look for weakness that should continue lower. We feel this drop is unlikely to move far today, but next supports would be found at 1.2855-70 and then 1.2760.



Week View
Resistance: 1.3050 ... 1.3125 ... 1.3225 ... 1.3360
Support....: 1.2855 ... 1.2760 ... 1.2710 ... 1.2596

Although price has held below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud it is currently testing the Cloud. Schaff Trend Cycle is now at zero while FXS-RSI has settled into a sideways move in neutral territory. While price could test the 1.3025-45 area first we continue to prefer a scenario where losses towards 1.2710 are likely before further medium term strength.

Bullish: Currently there appears to be an upward bias but we feel this should break above the 1.3050 level. Thus only a break here and then at 1.3100-25 would call for direct gains back towards 1.3226 and probably higher with next targets at 1.3360 and 1.3490.

Bearish: Although the medium term correction has been choppy we continue to consider the next likely turning point will be back in the area of the 1.2710 corrective low. Resistance at 1.3025-45 should hold to allow this additional drop to occur. However, we look for a medium term base in the 1.2710 area and for further gains. Thus only below 1.2700 would allow losses to extend towards 1.2596 before higher.

Month View
(Updated 3rd April)
Resistance: 1.3085 ... 1.3235 ... 1.3410 ... 1.3700
Support....: 1.2625 ... 1.2515 ... 1.2180 ... 1.1700

The expected move higher has met with some early choppy price action but we feel this should now move onto the 1.3220-35 area this month at the very least and do see some risk of seeing gains extend to 1.3410. Watch this area since it could cause a pullback. Further resistance is around 1.3700.



GBPUSD
Price: 1.7775

Day View
Resistance: 1.7805 ... 1.7825 ... 1.7845 ... 1.7890
Support....: 1.7745 ... 1.7720 ... 1.7700 ... 1.7670

Bias: Mildly bullish towards 1.7825 at least - possibly 1.7880 but with caution

Bullish: Although the 1.7815 pivot resistance has held thus far, the recovery from 1.7660 looks positive and we feel there is probably greater risk of seeing further gains through to 1.7825 at the very least. Care should be exercised at that point. Any break above 1.7825 would imply a move through to 1.7880-00 before lower.

Bearish: The recovery from the 1.7660 corrective low looks positive and thus we prefer to wait for signs of a peak before getting too bearish. Targets remain at 1.7825 and 1.7880-00. Alternatively a direct break of support at 1.7700 would suggest a retest at 1.7660 and breach of this support would imply immediate losses through to 1.7580 and probably lower.



Week View
Resistance: 1.7825 ... 1.7900 ... 1.7980 ... 1.8035
Support....: 1.7660 ... 1.7580 ... 1.7435 ... 1.7285

Although price has remained below the 1.7815 pivot resistance it has also failed to break above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and we feel this may be continued for a while. Schaff Trend Cycle has returned to high levels while FXS-RSI is continuing to gradually recover from oversold. This recovery does suggest a period of consolidation and we feel the peak will either come around 1.7825 or possibly as high as 1.7880-00.

Bullish: The recovery from 1.7579 has held below the 1.7815 pivot resistance. We are mixed but in general there does appear to be suggestion that the shorter cycles are rising at the moment. Thus while 1.7625-75 holds we feel the risk does appear to be greater on the upside but we need a break of 1.7825 to confirm. However, there is also good resistance at 1.7880-00 and only above here would suggest a stronger move through to 1.7980-1.8035.

Bearish: The choppy pullback continues and the immediate bias still appears to be higher. However, watch resistance first at 1.7825 and then 1.7880-00 for signs of peaking. Any weakness seen from this area that breaks back below 1.7700 and 1.7660 would suggest further sharp losses down through 1.7580 and through to 1.7435 at least and probably lower to 1.7285 and 1.7190.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.8300 ... 1.8605 ... 1.8875 ... 1.9025
Support....: 1.7650 ... 1.7165 ... 1.6905 ... 1.6565

The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and expect to see progress to the next support at 1.7650 this week. From there we should see a correction develop but the coming 4-6 weeks looks bearish towards 1.7165.


(c) Copyright FX-Strategy Inc 2004


Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy SchaffCharts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 16 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 16 Oct
01:30 CN- CPI
21:45 NZ- CPI
Tue 17 Oct
08:30 GB- CPI
09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
09:00 EZ- Final HICP
Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105