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Sunday May 2, 2004 - 08:08:24 GMT
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Forecast for FX Majors 3rd May 2004

General Market Conditions

The Dollar remained pretty much contained on Friday and the first part of today should continue to see tight ranges but we look to see the Dollar weaken by the end of the day. In the overall picture we continue to look for the Dollar to weaken towards 1.2710 Swissie, 1.2075 and then 1.2160 and as long as 1.7825 breaks then 1.7880-00 seems possible against the British Pound. The strength against the Japanese Yen has reached the 110.65 target but there does appear to be a good chance of seeing this move further towards 110.05-15 again, possibly 111.35 but we still feel a retest of 109.50 is still likely before further significant strength is possible. Have a profitable week.

Price: 110.50

Day View
Resistance: 110.70 ... 111.10 ... 111.35 ... 111.60
Support....: 110.20 ... 109.95 ... 109.65 ... 109.50

Bias: Possibly a move to 110.85-111.15 but then lower again

Bullish: The structure from 109.51 appears more corrective to us but there does seem to be room for one last move higher which we feel is most likely to stall in the 110.85-111.15 area. Any break there would cause a test of resistance at 111.35 and 111.60 but only above these areas would allow gains to become stronger towards 112.15-25.

Bearish: While the move higher from the 109.51 corrective low has been steady we still feel that the structure appears corrective and thus we look for a peak in the 110.85-111.15 area and for a move down to retest the 109.50 support once again. If this occurs after a test of the suggested resistance then we would consider the 109.20-50 area as potentially a good base for further gains.

Week View
Resistance: 111.15 ... 111.60 ... 112.20 ... 113.25
Support....: 109.20 ... 108.70 ... 107.25 ... 106.30

While further gains have been seen these have struggled to remain above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and we still feel a little more consolidation is likely before further medium term strength. Schaff Trend Cycle has has been choppy over the past few days repeatedly moving back to 100 while FXS-RSI has been moving sideways in neutral territory. The medium to long term is still positive and we see the 108.30-70 area as good support.

Bullish: The short term picture is a little mixed but we retain an underlying medium term bullish stance. However, we do feel this may take a little while longer to develop and therefore resistance at 110.85-111.15 has a good chance of holding with the bigger risk for a drift back down to 109.50 at least with 108.70 providing further support. However, while this lower support holds we still consider the next move to be higher towards 113.25 at least and we feel a more aggressive target is possible at 114.25.

Bearish: The downside from 111.01 has been shallow thus far and we still feel there is more chance of a return to the 109.50 level once again. Further support is at 108.30-70 and this should provide a good base. Thus only below 108.00-30 would suggest a weaker performance and a return to 107.00-30.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 109.25 ... 111.15 ... 112.30 ... 114.90
Support....: 104.80 ... 103.30 ... 101.30 ..... 99.50

Having seen a move back above the 107.21-65 area the emphasis appears to be back on the upside in line with the bullish weekly and monthly cycles. We require 104.80-00 to hold for this and a move back above 109.25 would encourage gains up to 111.15, 112.32 with 114.90 being a higher target to keep in mind. Back below 104.80 would threaten the 103.42 low and call for losses down to 100.40.

Price: 1.1980

Day View
Resistance: 1.2000 ... 1.2025 ... 1.2050 ... 1.2070
Support....: 1.1955 ... 1.1925 ... 1.1910 ... 1.1890

Bias: Lower to 1.1920 again before higher

Bullish: Price found support at the lower end of our 1.1920-50 support range and has moved to 1.2012. However, we feel that the first move should be lower once again towards 1.1920. Thus only a direct break above 1.2025 would generate immediate gains up to 1.2070-90 at least and possibly as far as 1.2115 and 1.2160.

Bearish: Although price moved marginally above the 1.2000 resistance we still feel that this is part of a complex correction from the first peak at 1.1983 and the preferred short term outlook is for a drift lower over the day back towards 1.1890-1.1910 where we feel a base will form for further strength. Thus only below 1.1890 would see price drop towards 1.1840.

Week View
Resistance: 1.2070 ... 1.2160 ... 1.2200 ... 1.2310
Support....: 1.1890 ... 1.1840 ... 1.1760 ... 1.1570

Friday saw price remain above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud but without much momentum behind the move. Schaff TC1 has reached 100 while FXS-RSI has rallied to break marginally above overbought. With the break of 1.1950 the emphasis does appear to be to the upside with likely targets around 1.2070-90 and then 1.2160. However, watch this area closely for signs of reversal.

Bullish: The reversal from 1.1805 and break of 1.1950 signals a move to 1.2075 at least and possibly 1.2160-00. While this is possible price should remain above 1.1890-1.1920. At the target a further set back is possible and we shall need to see how deep this pullback bites. Further resistance is at 1.2335.

Bearish: The break of 1.1950 appears to reduce the chance of a direct resumption of the downtrend and may cause a period of choppy and erratic trading. We do feel that the initial move will be higher towards 1.2070 and probably up to 1.2160-00 at least. Thus only a break below 1.1890 would cause to re-assess and probably cause a move back to 1.1840 and then 1.1758-00 at least.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.2085 ... 1.2325 ... 1.2455 ... 1.2655
Support....: 1.1720 ... 1.1560 ... 1.1310 ... 1.1165

While the progress lower has been choppy we do feel that the repeated rejection around 1.2400-55 and the decline from there should now allow price to move down to the Double Top target around 1.1720-50 and we suspect now a stronger decline. Support at 1.1560 may hold for a while but we while 1.1820-50 holds we consider the larger risk to be lower to 1.1165 over the next 4-6 weeks.

Price: 1.2950

Day View
Resistance: 1.2985 ... 1.3020 ... 1.3045 ... 1.3090
Support....: 1.2945 ... 1.2920 ... 1.2890 ... 1.2870

Bias: Cautiously an initial move to 1.3025-45 but then lower

Bullish: A marginal break seen above 1.3000 and we feel this probably means we shall see price initially remain moderately strong and target the 1.3025-45 area before further weakness is seen. Thus only above 1.3050 would suggest a return to the 1.3095-00 highs and possibly 1.3125.

Bearish: Our overall view remains bearish but we feel that a move to 1.3025-45 is likely ahead of any stronger bearishness. Thus from 1.3025-45 or a direct break below 1.2920 we then look for weakness that should continue lower. We feel this drop is unlikely to move far today, but next supports would be found at 1.2855-70 and then 1.2760.

Week View
Resistance: 1.3050 ... 1.3125 ... 1.3225 ... 1.3360
Support....: 1.2855 ... 1.2760 ... 1.2710 ... 1.2596

Although price has held below the 4-hour Pivot Cloud it is currently testing the Cloud. Schaff Trend Cycle is now at zero while FXS-RSI has settled into a sideways move in neutral territory. While price could test the 1.3025-45 area first we continue to prefer a scenario where losses towards 1.2710 are likely before further medium term strength.

Bullish: Currently there appears to be an upward bias but we feel this should break above the 1.3050 level. Thus only a break here and then at 1.3100-25 would call for direct gains back towards 1.3226 and probably higher with next targets at 1.3360 and 1.3490.

Bearish: Although the medium term correction has been choppy we continue to consider the next likely turning point will be back in the area of the 1.2710 corrective low. Resistance at 1.3025-45 should hold to allow this additional drop to occur. However, we look for a medium term base in the 1.2710 area and for further gains. Thus only below 1.2700 would allow losses to extend towards 1.2596 before higher.

Month View
(Updated 3rd April)
Resistance: 1.3085 ... 1.3235 ... 1.3410 ... 1.3700
Support....: 1.2625 ... 1.2515 ... 1.2180 ... 1.1700

The expected move higher has met with some early choppy price action but we feel this should now move onto the 1.3220-35 area this month at the very least and do see some risk of seeing gains extend to 1.3410. Watch this area since it could cause a pullback. Further resistance is around 1.3700.

Price: 1.7775

Day View
Resistance: 1.7805 ... 1.7825 ... 1.7845 ... 1.7890
Support....: 1.7745 ... 1.7720 ... 1.7700 ... 1.7670

Bias: Mildly bullish towards 1.7825 at least - possibly 1.7880 but with caution

Bullish: Although the 1.7815 pivot resistance has held thus far, the recovery from 1.7660 looks positive and we feel there is probably greater risk of seeing further gains through to 1.7825 at the very least. Care should be exercised at that point. Any break above 1.7825 would imply a move through to 1.7880-00 before lower.

Bearish: The recovery from the 1.7660 corrective low looks positive and thus we prefer to wait for signs of a peak before getting too bearish. Targets remain at 1.7825 and 1.7880-00. Alternatively a direct break of support at 1.7700 would suggest a retest at 1.7660 and breach of this support would imply immediate losses through to 1.7580 and probably lower.

Week View
Resistance: 1.7825 ... 1.7900 ... 1.7980 ... 1.8035
Support....: 1.7660 ... 1.7580 ... 1.7435 ... 1.7285

Although price has remained below the 1.7815 pivot resistance it has also failed to break above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud and we feel this may be continued for a while. Schaff Trend Cycle has returned to high levels while FXS-RSI is continuing to gradually recover from oversold. This recovery does suggest a period of consolidation and we feel the peak will either come around 1.7825 or possibly as high as 1.7880-00.

Bullish: The recovery from 1.7579 has held below the 1.7815 pivot resistance. We are mixed but in general there does appear to be suggestion that the shorter cycles are rising at the moment. Thus while 1.7625-75 holds we feel the risk does appear to be greater on the upside but we need a break of 1.7825 to confirm. However, there is also good resistance at 1.7880-00 and only above here would suggest a stronger move through to 1.7980-1.8035.

Bearish: The choppy pullback continues and the immediate bias still appears to be higher. However, watch resistance first at 1.7825 and then 1.7880-00 for signs of peaking. Any weakness seen from this area that breaks back below 1.7700 and 1.7660 would suggest further sharp losses down through 1.7580 and through to 1.7435 at least and probably lower to 1.7285 and 1.7190.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.8300 ... 1.8605 ... 1.8875 ... 1.9025
Support....: 1.7650 ... 1.7165 ... 1.6905 ... 1.6565

The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and expect to see progress to the next support at 1.7650 this week. From there we should see a correction develop but the coming 4-6 weeks looks bearish towards 1.7165.

(c) Copyright FX-Strategy Inc 2004

Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy SchaffCharts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.


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