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Tuesday January 31, 2006 - 12:15:35 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 31-Jan-2005....1208 GMT

Euro @ 1.2114/7....Day of reckoning
R: 1.2119 / 1.2151 /
S: 1.2065 / 1.2039-34 / 1.2007
Very quiet between 1.2065-2119 since yesterday. Very important Support at 1.2039 and very important Resistance at 1.2151 (200-day MA). The Euro had risen above the 200-day MA last week, but has fallen back below it. This is potentially bearish. In case of a Day Close below 1.2039 today, there would be chances that the upside potential will stand negated. On the other hand, a Day Close above 1.2151 may reassert bullishness. The market is waiting to see which way the cookie will crumble. So we wait and watch too.

$-Yen @ 117.02/06.....Is it topping out?
R: 117.42-52 / 117.86 / 118.10
S: 117.04-116.97 / 116.67 / 116.24-10
The market has come off well from its 117.85 high yesterday and has tested important Support on the 4-hourly at 117.04. Important Resistance now at 117.42-52 and of course at 117.86, near yesterday's high. A Day Close below 116.97 could be very bearish, of course, but even a Day Close below 117.52 may indicate impending Dollar weakness. Target on the downside would be 116 initially. A Day Close above 118.10 will be needed to reassert Dollar bullishness.

Sell $25K at 117.40, SL 117.95, TP open
Sell $25K at 116.82, SL 117.27, TP open

Euro-Yen @ 141.78/83....Still Consolidating
R: 141.99-142.08 / 142.50 / 142.80
S: 141.50 / 141.33 / 141.12-03
As we have been saying for quite a while, the Euro-Yen is in a Range of 142.50-141.50. Currently, it is near the lower end of the trading range. The Supports lie at 141.50 and if that is broken there may be a fall towards 141.33 and 141.12-03. On the upside the resistances lie at 141.99-142.08, above which there may be a rally towards 142.50. The intraday view is currently range bound and there will be a change in view in the direction of the “breakout”. The weekly bias is up

Buy Euro 20K at 141.60, SL 141.25, TP 142.40

$-Swiss @ 1.2832/37....Ranged
R: 1.2851-61 / 1.2881-82 / 1.2903-16
S: 1.2810-1.2797 / 1.2784-66 / 1.2754
There has been very little movement in the $-Swiss since and it is expected to stay in a very narrow range till the FOMC meet later on in the day. The range currently is 1.2810-1.2900. If there is a break above the Resistance of 1.2903-16, we could see an upmove towards 1.2939, the statistically projected Max High for the day. On the other hand, on a break below the Support of 1.2810-1.2797, there could be a fall towards 1.2754. The intraday view is neutral and the weekly bias is bearish.

We have exited at 1.2840 the Long entered at 1.2881 yesterday.

Cable @ 1.7720/25....Important Resistance at 1.7767
R: 1.7767 / 1.7805
S: 1.7686-79 / 1.7635
After limiting the down side to 1.7635 yesterday the pair has risen above the range of 1.7635-1.7713 (mentioned in the morning) to 1.7753 so far the day. But it down not seem to be sustaining there either. Fresh bullish confirmation comes only on a rise past 1.7767. But, even then, the market would have to deal with the 200-day MA at 1.7843. Immediate support is seen at 1.7683 which is giving the Cable a bullish bias on an intra-day basis.

BUT, a failure to close above 1.7767 might invite selling pressure again for a fall back to 1.7635. Itching to sell below 1.7660, but holding the horses in rein tonight.

Aussie @ 0.7536/41...Watching Resistance at 0.7552
R: 0.7546 / 0.7563 / 0.7584
S: 0.7517-01 / 0.7474 / 0.7456-52
The pair gained some momentum to rise in the last few hours today and might test the 200-Day MA at 0.7552. A break thereof, if seen, could lead to further rise to 0.7580. With the down side now limited to the immediate support at 0.7511 the pair might find buyers on dips. At the same time failure to rise above 0.7552 might see buying interest weakening and giving rise to chances of falling back to 0.7470 once again.

On the whole the pair continues to trade within the wide range of 0.7443-0.7580, with possible selling interest coming again at 0.7552-63 levels.

Happy Trading!


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