User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday February 1, 2006 - 18:15:59 GMT
Foreign Exchange Analytics - www.fxa.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Soooo Over Greenspan

I am already a Bernanke fan. Why? I am soooo over Greenspan. Don't get me wrong. I have loads of respect and admiration for Greenspan, and his track record to date speaks volumes about his competence. I was just never a Greenspan sycophant. I think his style was autocratic. He fostered an oracle-like image, helped by his use of arcane and cumbersome language, and through careful control over who was allowed into the inner sanctum (few really). I find idolization repugnant. I tend to respect those that are really good, like Greenspan, but do not take themselves so seriously, unlike Greenspan. The only self-deprecating aspect of this man was his body language. Just looking at him one gets the sense that he does not take himself too seriously. But he never did anything to deter the media or markets from worshiping at his alter. And his skill at maneuvering through Washington's social calendar irrespective of what party held the White House is more befitting a K-Street lobbyist than the Chairman of the Fed. Which by the way I believe led him down the darkest path by backing controversial fiscal policies in recent years.

But 18 years and near total control over arguably the most important job in the country, and on the planet, after President of the USA, Greenspan has evolved into a cult-like figure...even Chairman Mao would have been envious. Senator McCain once said if Greenspan were to die while Fed Chairman just put on some sunglasses and prop him up like the movie "Weekend at Bernie's". Everyone thought it was funny and many thought it was true.

Well I am for term limits for Fed Chairmen/Chairwomen/Chairpeople. It is not an elected office and it is a far more important job today than imagined under the Federal Reserve Act. Eight is enough...eight years.

Bernanke is a breath of fresh air. He is not only better than a propped up, shade wearing Bernie, he may be better than Greenspan. He will show quickly that more than one guy/gal can do the job competently. And Gentle Ben will not be at all interested in fostering a cult of personality. I suspect too that the FOMC will be an arena for debate and ideas (emphasis on plural) and not mainly a rubber stamp for the Chairman. Sure Bernanke may start out asserting his view to get the troops in line. But this his Chairmanship will be more about building the institution's image and dismantling the cult of personality the outgoing Chairman has left.

And Bernanke is picking up the reins when the outlook for rates and the economy is the most uncertain since the Fed started tightening in June 2004. With funds more or less at neutral, the rate decisions ahead will be dependent on the data. His credentials exceed any of those Greenspan had (talking resume) in 1989 when President Reagan named him to succeed Paul Volcker.

As such I see three distinct paths that the new Chairman will have to steer policy down, depending on the data.

Starting from the least likely to most likely...

1/ A general equilibrium has been reached and will be sustained. Fed funds are at a nominal and real rate that perfectly balances aggregate supply and demand, and one can expect a sustainable growth rate for many quarters to come. Bernanke has nothing to do on rates and can use his season tickets for the Senators.

2/ The lagged effect of 14 hikes, energy inflation tax, future asset market dislocation/s (real estate, dlr, credit markets, stocks) lead Bernanke and the Fed to adopt an accommodative stance (burden of proof and at least 3 quarters of data away, though financial shock could bring this forward).

3/ There is enough juice in the economy to push Bernanke and the Fed toward restrictive policy from neutral (burden of proof is 1 to 2 quarters of data anyway). This presupposes relatively benign capital market problems, soft landing in real estate and continued healthy doses of household and firm consumption.

In all of the above scenarios, I am confident Bernanke will get the path and the policy prescription correct. What worries me most is that it may not matter...imbalances are far larger than a blunt set of policy tools can cope with. And at the end of the day an economy immune to Fed policy treatment will be the Greenspan legacy...cheap credit chasing too few assets...multiple bubbles bursting and significant wealth destruction. In some respects the conundrum Greenspan can't figure out is really in part a function of his own creation...the cult of the personality. Markets believe that the Fed has reduced risk across asset classes.

David Gilmore
FXA
www.fxa.com

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105