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Friday February 3, 2006 - 12:20:45 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 03-Feb-2006...1215 GMT

Euro @ 1.2062/5.....Increasing bearishness?
R: 1.2080-2100 / 1.2150
S: 1.2040-30 / 1.2007 / 1.1975
1.2040-30 remains a strong/ crucial Support on the downside. A break thereof (an preferably Day Close below) is needed to confirm bearishness. Failure to break the Support would keep room open for Euro strength going into next week, if not today. On the upside, 1.2090-2100 is the crucial Resistance.

NFP expectation is +200K. Possibly a number like +240K or so might help the Dollar. A number like +180K may do nothing to it. Only a number below 150K might hurt the Dollar and help the Euro.

The Euro had risen above its 200-MA (Daily) and is trading below it again. The charts suggest increasing pressure on the downside. A strong NFP number could well be bearish for the Euro.

$-Yen @ 118.59/63....Holding Long
R: 118.68-73 / 119.06 / 119.40
S: 118.28-16 / 117.95
Support has moved up a bit to 118.28 since the morning. But the Resistance at 118.68-73 still impedes progress. An upside break (if it happens) could propel the market up to 119.40 by Monday. In case Support at 118.30 breaks, a fall to 118.00-117.95 may be seen.

$25K Long at 118.59, SL 118.18, TP 119.20 (down from 119.30)

Euro-Yen @ 143.03/8....Near 7-year High
R: 143.55-65 / 143.80
S: 142.66 / 142.50-42
Good Trend Support at 142.66 on the 4-hour. On the upside, the previous all-time High at 143.59-69 provides Resistance that everyone is looking at. A dip to the mentioned Support is a possibility tonight. If it holds through today and early Monday, there could be chances of further upside past 143.59-69 later on Monday. On the other hand, a fall below 142.50 would probably confirm a huge Double Top.

Buy EUR 20K at 142.83 (down from 142.89), SL 142.50, TP open

$-Swiss @ 1.2886/91....Possibly bullish
R: 1.2906-22 / 1.2952 / 1.2980-95
S: 1.2847-40 / 1.2807-1.2790 / 1.2775
On the 4-hourly charts remain bullish with strong Support coming at 1.2869-40 for the day. If the Support holds today, there may be chances of breaking above Resistance at 1.2919 and rally to 1.2925. Moreover the trendline from 25-Jan-06 Low at 1.2573, joining 31-Jan-06 Low at 1.2739 and joining today’s low at 1.2840, provides strong support at 1.2840 for today, which suggests Dollar is likely to strengthen further. An upmove past 1.2935 (if it happens) could be very bullish. On the other hand, failure to rise above the Resistance at 1.2922 may see the pair break below the said Support and fall to 1.2775 and below next week.

Cable @ 1.7757/62.....Indecisive
R: 1.7768-70 / 1.7812-22 / 1.7880
S: 1.7745 / 1.7719-11
The trend line from 03-Jan-06 low 1.7186, joining the 30-Jan-06 low at 1.7635 and joining 02-Feb-06 low at 1.7711 provides strong Support at 1.7731 for today. This causes some doubt on a possible bearishness in the pair today. At the same the pair has been unable to break above its 200-Day MA from the last few days (now seen at 1.7824), there could be very little scope for a rally either.

Hence the pair is expected to be indecisive between 1.7731-1.7824, with an equal possibility of moving either side. Watching for some more time today.

Aussie @ 0.7521/26...Watching support at 0.7500
R: 0.7529-40 / 0.7582 / 0.7601-23
S: 0.7512-0.7500 / 0.7475 / 0.7454-50
An intraday bounce found resistance at 0.7540 and saw the pair dip back to the support at 0.7519. Proper bearish confirmation would need a fall below the important Support level at 0.7500. In which case a fall to 0.7475 or even 0.7450 may be seen in a couple of days. The chances of a rally remain limited while the market trades below 0.7550, the 200-MA on the Daily.

Happy Trading!


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