User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday February 3, 2006 - 21:44:15 GMT

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex: Light Week Ahead Could Bring Consolidation in EUR/USD

DailyFX Fundamentals 02-03-06

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

• Light Week Ahead Could Bring Consolidation in EUR/USD
• Euro Outperforms British Pound Thanks to Stronger Data
• USDJPY Rallies Close to 500 Pips In 3 Weeks

US Dollar

It has been quite a wild day in the market today. Non-farm payrolls fell short of expectations, yet the dollar skyrocketed. What is most interesting of all however was that the sell-off in the EUR/USD stopped right at 1.1970, the exact potential support level that we mentioned in yesterday’s Speculative Sentiment report. In fact, in the report, we had said “Presently, the ratio is net long without a confirmation from USD/CHF, which suggests that even though our bias remains to the downside, the sell-off could be limited to the next support zone at 1.1970.” Right now (as of 2/3 close) the SSI ratios remain relatively the same as yesterday and USDCHF although teetering near parity is still not giving a confirmation signal to sell the EUR/USD. As such, even though the sell-off in the EUR/USD was fairly extensive today, for the time being, we may see one of two scenarios unfold; either a larger relief rally before prices head lower once again or that 1.1970 simply becomes the hard support level for the EUR/USD. Now admittedly, the dollar’s reaction today was not completely irrational. Even though the headline payrolls number was weaker than expected, the other components of the report were actually quite encouraging. The unemployment rate dipped to 4.7 percent from 4.9 percent, which is the lowest level since July 2001. Average hourly earnings remained unchanged, but the December figure was revised higher from 0.3 percent to 0.4 percent. December payrolls were also revised from 108k to 140k. So if you tack on the 32k improvement from last month, the headline figure then comes much closer to the consensus forecast. Bottom-line line, for most dollar bulls, triple digit payrolls is already good enough and today’s report does little to stifle expectations for a March 28 rate hike. According to our friends at IFR, the April Fed Funds contract shows a 90% likelihood of a March hike and now a 60% likelihood of a May rate hike, which is part of the reason why the dollar rallied today. Other data released today was mixed. Factory orders came in slightly stronger than expected, rising 1.1 percent in December after an upwardly revised 3.3 percent increase the previous month. Consumer confidence fell to 91.2 from, 93.4 while the service sector ISM index dipped to 56.8 from 61.0 in January. Although service sector growth is still continuing, as we have seen in the manufacturing sector, the pace of growth is slowing. After a week of big swings, we could settle into a bit of range trading with a very light US economic calendar next week. The trade balance report on Friday is only the release that has potential to move the market.


Bullish momentum in US dollar forced the Euro lower today despite more encouraging economic data. Taking a look at today’s reports, it seems as if Trichet may have had them at his fingertips before yesterday’s ECB meeting. The flash consumer price report for the month of January signaled higher inflation pressure last month. The CPI increased to 2.4 percent from 2.2 percent, which was above the market’s 2.3 percent forecast and the first time in four months that inflation accelerated. Unlike the US, service sector PMI for the Eurozone increased from 56.8 to 57.0, confirming the gradual growth that Trichet was referencing. Improvements in Germany led growth as activity slowed in France and Italy. December retail sales grew by 0.1 percent, right in line with expectations. Sales for November were also revised from negative 0.1 percent to flat. Overall, it seems that despite some wrinkles in data earlier this week, Trichet reassured the market that they are still thinking about a rate hike this quarter. Should German industrial production, CPI, factory orders and retail PMI come out strongly, we could see Euro bulls return to the market.

British Pound

Like all of the other majors, the British pound was dragged lower by the dollar’s impressive rally. Against the Euro, the pound underperformed as the CIPS service sector PMI fell from 57.9 to 57.0. In contrast, as already noted in the Euro section, the data released from the Eurozone was mostly stronger than expected. However, the outlook for the UK economy is still encouraging. The details of the service sector PMI report indicate that expectations of businesses are at a 10 month high. In the week ahead, the UK economic calendar is fairly busy with BRC retail sales, house prices, industrial production and the trade balance scheduled for release. The Bank of England is also scheduled to meet and discuss interest rates on Thursday. No changes to the repo rate is expected and as usual, if the BoE leaves rates unchanged, they will also refrain from making any additional comments, which means that in all likelihood, the BoE meeting will be a non-event.

Japanese Yen

The US dollar surged higher once again against the Japanese Yen. In fact over the past 3 weeks, USD/JPY has rallied close to 500 pips. Given such an impressive rally, we are tempted to ask when USD/JPY will top out. However, for those of you who share a similar thought, it is important to remember that USD/JPY is a very trending currency pair, which means that once it finds its trend, it could overshoot even the most optimistic forecasts. Data from Japan is back loaded with confidence, spending and the BoJ Monthly monetary policy report not due until Thursday and Friday. This means that given the light US AND Japanese economic calendars, we could see a bit consolidation at current levels. Overall, the dollar will be leader of the pair as the Bank of Japan finds its hands tied by the Japanese government while the Fed prepare itself for yet another interest rate hike.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105