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Tuesday February 7, 2006 - 12:50:08 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX-Thoughts for the day - Evening - 07-Feb-06...1238 GMT.

Euro @ 1.1971/4...Square now
R: 1.2014 / 1.2027-33 / 1.2057-77
S: 1.1944 / 1.1919-10
There had been a minor rally in Euro-$, but that flattered to deceive. It did not even test the strong Resistance at 1.2026 and fell back from 1.2013 itself. Above that there are strong Resistances at 1.2027-33 and then at 1.2057-77. On the downsides, the Supports come in at 1.1944 and then at 1.1919-10. There is a very strong Support around 1.1933, which falls on the trend line (Daily joining the low of 1.1660 on the 02-Dec 05 and the low of 1.1849 on 30-Dec 05). The intraday view is that it could trade within the range of 1.2014 and 1.1933

We have earlier booked profit on our Long (entered at 1.1954) at 1.1982

Yen @ 117.89/93....Bearish today
R: 118.23 / 118.66-75
S: 117.61-51 / 117.14-04
The Dollar fell to as low as 117.61 today. This suggests that the Dollar upmove from 114.23 (24-Jan-06 low) has chances of correcting further to 117.00. For today the pair has seen short covering from the intraday low at 117.61 and currently tests the Resistance at 118.00-10. In case of a rise above the Resistance, there could be a rise to 118.50, but may still find sellers there. Hence we expect the pair to be in a corrective mode for a couple of days more.

Earlier Short entered at 118.60, met its TP at 117.68.

Sell $25K at 118.25, SL 118.75, TP 117.45.

Euro-Yen @ 141.13/8....Falling
R: 141.42-48 / 141.69-89 / 142.17
S: 141.21 / 140.89 / 140.66
There has been a big fall in the Euro-Yen as we had been warning for some time. Now, it faces big Resistances on the upside at 141.69-89. Incase there is a move beyond this, there could be a weak rally towards 142.17 before falling again. We expect selling on rallies. On the downside, there is a Support coming at 141.21 and then at 140.89-75, the latter being a strong Support. Since, there has been already a big fall, there could be a sideways move within a narrow range for the rest of the day. However, the intraday bias continues to be bearish.

Our Short position (entered at 142.35) met its TP at 141.60. We now would like to sell on rallies, or buy on further fall.

Sell EUR 20K at 141.70, SL 142.00, TP 141.05
Buy EUR 20K at 140.92, SL 140.60, TP 141.38

$-Swiss @ 1.2988/93.....Square now
R: 1.2973-96 / 1.3053-70
S: 1.2937-31 / 1.2909-2893
There has been some profit booking in the $-Swiss, and now the Support comes in at 1.2937 and then at 1.2922, on the trend line (4-Hourly, joining the low of 1.2574 on 25-Jan 06 and the low of 1.2739 on 31-Jan 06). In case there is a fall below that, there could be a decline towards 1.2909-2893. In case of a break below the trend line there could be confusion for some time. On the upside, the initial Resistances come in at 1.2973-96, above which the Resistances are present at 1.3053-70. Now, the intraday bias has turned neutral.

We have exited our Long position (entered at 1.2985) at 1.2982.

Cable @ 1.7455/60....Adding to Short
R: 1.7490-16 / 1.7545-54 / 1.7562-76
S: 1.7450-34
The pair seems to be finding strong resistance at 1.7520 on intraday basis and continues to trade within the bear flag seen on the 4-hourly candles. Even if a rise above 1.7520 is seen the pair might still find resistance at 1.7545-54, a rise beyond which looks difficult for the day. This leaves scope for a fall below the Support at 1.7481 and target 1.7430 later today. The bearish view for the day might come into doubt in case a rise above 1.7554 is seen. If so, there could be a rise to 1.7590 in a couple of days.

Sell GBP 15K at current level, SL 1.7520, TP 1.7380

GBP 15K short at 1.7520, SL 1.7520 (down from 1.7540), TP 1.7350.

Aussie @ 0.7426/31 ....Holding short
R: 0.7455-62 / 0.7488-95
S: 0.7423 / 0.7384-73
The intraday low at 0.7400 has provided some short covering during the day, which has resulted in a test of the critical Resistance level at 0.7443-52. In case of a rise above the said Resistance, the pair may still find sellers at 0.7482 and cause the pair to fall back below 0.7400 in a couple of days. Note that the pair might find difficulty in sustaining any bounce back, while it trades below 0.7500. Hence even as the pair tries to recover today, we expect to see only a limited upmove.

AUD 30K Short at 0.7436, SL 0.7466, TP 0.7324.

Happy Trading!


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