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Monday July 5, 2004 - 11:18:00 GMT -

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DailyFX Technical Report 07-05-2004

Euro creates Fibonacci traders' delight with extreme high and low

Euro creates Fibonacci traders' delight with extreme high and low
Swissie finally breaks down neckline skewing the Head and Shoulders
The sterling trades near 23.6% retracement of 1.5600-1.9125

The EUR/USD has made nearly a full retracement of the recent fall from 1.2350 to 1.1955 on a sharp correction made during Friday's session. The 50% retracement of 1.2930-1.1765 (1.2345) is the next key level on the resistance side, as it provided solid resistance on the last test (6/7-6/8). The Pair currently trades at the 38.2% retracement of 1.1380 -1.2930 (1.2320). Daily oscillators are fairly neutral; however, intraday studies have been stretched well into overbought following Friday's momentous swing into the regression trend macro channel. The move has, for the time being, rendered the intermediate trend that appeared early in the month of May obsolete.

The USD/JPY remains on bid early in Asia trading. Despite falling oscillators on the intraday 240-minute chart, the pair lofts towards the 50% retracement of 103.45-115.00 (109.20) at the moment. Oscillators remain neutral on the daily studies. Presently the pair trades 100 pips above the 61.8% retracement of 103.45-115.00 (107.85) and the level could provide moderate support if any sellers dare to step in. Recent sessions have shown such dramatic price swings, leaving us to deduce that the pair may be in store for some consolidation as traders lick their wounds.

GBP/USD fails to make higher highs but lower lows continue, thus implying the most recent trend is ailing. However, the pair has yet to retrace significantly and with the exception of Friday's pricing the pair has been consolidating. Friday's move was mainly attributed to broad based dollar weakness as oppose to sterling strength so we could choose to ignore the move all together. Intraday oscillators have begun to descend from overbought conditions (RSI 71.45, MACD histogram sloped down) giving sellers plenty to pine about. The 100-day SMA comes in at 1.8181 and should give bulls a tipping point for an entry if oscillators concur.

The USD/CHF is probably the most interesting of the majors in that the pair trades just a scant 200 pips from multi-year lows made in January. With the recent breakdown Friday, skewing the Head and Shoulders, many dollar bulls had been hung out to dry. This inference has given us good reason to shift our analysis rather dramatically. The pair once again trades well below the 100 and 200-day MA's and is perhaps the most convincing evidence that this market is still very much uncertain if not down right bearish on the USD.


Comment from 06/11
On 05/31 EURJPY had a low at 33.01 (slightly above the 32.50/90 area) before a rally to the 36.80 high on 06/07 - 379pts higher. The outlook is today neutral and bulls and bears will find decent entries above and below the current market. Reversal bulls will probably not miss the 30.80/31.10 area thanks to the 200 SMA, Low BB and a strong Fibo confluence (38.2% fibo from the Mar bear wave & 23.6% Fibo from the 01 - 03 bull wave). A breakout below would open the door to 25.50/26. Bulls will certainly consider the area in order to exploit the strong Fibo confluence present at the level (38.2% Fibo from the 01 - 03 bull wave & 50% Fibo from the 02 - 03 bull wave). Bears will probably add on bounce to the 34.50/35 area (breakout pt now R, 20 EMA and 61.8% May - Nov bear wave) but the key level bears will watch is the obvious swing high and high BB zone at 38.00/50.

On 06/15 EURJPY had a high at 34.48 (slightly below our 34.50/35 area) before a fall to the 30.09 low on 06/24 - 439pts lower. The market had lows between 31.33 and 30.82 between 06/17 and 06/22. A 100 pts rally occurred each day from the lows. The outlook is still quite neutral but a bullish bias is present. Bears will consider 34.00/50 in order to exploit a robust Fibo confluence (23.6% Fibo from the Apr - May bull wave & 61.8% Fibo from the Jun 03 - Nov 03 bear wave). Above, bears will also consider 36.50/37 in order to exploit the 23.6% Fibo from the Apr 03 - Jun 03 bull wave and the High BB. A sustained breakout above could potentially bring us to 45. Bulls will also have a couple of entries at 29.70/30 thanks to the 38.2% Fibo from the 02 - 03 bull wave and Low BB. A breakout below would open the way to 25.50/26 and the 50% Fibo from the 02 - 03 bull wave.


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