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Wednesday February 8, 2006 - 12:06:07 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 08-Feb-2006....1155 GMT

Euro @ 1970/3....Quiet now, breakout tomorrow
R: 1.1990-92 / 1.2027-30
S: 1.1947-39 / 1.1900-1890
The Euro has been ranged between 1.1963-96 during the day. The strong Support at 1.1947-39 has not been tested so far. The earlier resistance at 1.1974 has been broken and we can now expect a further upmove towards 1.1992. Further direction can be guaged only on the break of either 1.1992 on the upside or break of 1.1939 on the downside. A breakout of this range is possible later today, or tomorrow.

NOTE that a fall below 1.1939 is potentially very bearish.

$-Yen @ 118.24/8....Watch Resistance at 118.55-70
R: 118.55-70 / 119.00
S: 117.61-55 / 117.26
Dollar-Yen has tried, in vain, to fall through 117.55 but has bounced up again. We went Short at 117.80 but have been stopped out at 118.30. Resistance to watch now is 118.55-70. While that holds, there could be chances of a fresh fall, maybe tomorrow. NOTE that 118.70 is the statistically projected Max High for the day. But, in case the Dollar rises past 118.70, it can target 119.00, making a subsequent fall uncertain. We are square now, watching.

Euro-Yen @ 141.57/62....Holding Short
R: 141.64-73 / 142.00-15 / 142.30
S: 141.10 / 140.90-82
There has been a sharp rally in the Euro-Yen in the last few hours and it is now at the Resistance of 141.64-73. A further upmove from here could test the Resistance levels of 142.00-15, which falls on the trend line (4-Hourly, joining the high of 143.12 on 5-Feb 06 and the high of 142.51 on 7-Feb 06). On the downside the Supports come in at 141.10 and then at 140.90-82. The Support at 140.90-82 is crucial. If it breaks, it could imply a very sharp fall in the days ahead.

The question is, should we trade hoping for a break, or expecting that the Support will hold.

EUR 20K at 141.70, SL 141.89 (down from 142.05), TP 139.20. This is to profit in case the Support breaks. As soon as the market trades 141.20, bring SL down to 141.70.

$-Swiss @ 1.2974/9....Holding Long
R: 1.2991 / 1.3019-28
S: 1.2958-46 / 1.2921
The Support at 1.2958-46 is crucial. While it holds, there would be chances of a rise towards 1.3050 over today-tomorrow. IN case the Support breaks, however, a fall towards 1.2911 and maybe even lower could take place. The immediate Resistance is 1.2991 and 1.3019 beyond that. It appears that the 1.3019-28 Resistance might be strong and the Dollar could be in danger of topping out. On the other hand, in case the Resistance at 1.3028 breaks with some strength, there may be a lot of upside to come.

$25K Long at 1.2991, SL 1.2940, TP 1.3047. As soon as the market trades 1.3012, bring SL up to 1.2960

Cable @ 1.7431/36....Part TP on Short, holding balance
R: 1.7442-59 / 1.7485 / 1.7525
S: 1.7405 / 1.7349-24
The Support at 1.7400 (mentioned in the morning) has been tested during the day and the pair has bounced a little from there. As it appears 1.7400 could be a tough level to break today and a bounce back to 1.7525 Resistance is possible. However the expected rise may still provide selling opportunity and the pair has the chances of falling to 1.7350 in this week. As said earlier while 1.7400 holds, we may see the pair ranged between 1.7400-1.7525 for the next few days.

Exit Trade:
Exit at current level, the Short entered at 1.7455 today.

GBP 15K short at 1.7520, TSL 1.7465 (down from 1.7490), TP 1.7380.

Aussie @ 0.7380/5...Holding Short
R: 0.7402-13 / 0.7432-42
S: 0.7367- 58 / 0.7346 / 0.7303
The pair seems to have found some short covering interest at 0.7367-58, which becomes a strong Support for the day. Yet, any intraday bounce may find selling interest at the Resistance level 0.7402-13. In case of a rise above 0.7413, there could be a test of the next important resistance at 0.7440 but may still find sellers there. This causes the pair to stay bearish biased, with chances of making a minor recovery before falling toward 0.7350 in this week.

AUD short 30K at 0.7436, TSL 0.7420 (down from 0.7430), TP 0.7365.

Happy Trading!


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