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Thursday February 9, 2006 - 12:20:55 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 09-Feb-2006....1212 GMT

Euro-$ @ 1.1983/86....Still Ranged between 1.1947 and 1.2000

R: 1.2000 / 1.2052 / 1.2100
S: 1.1947 / 1.1922-14
The Euro has been ranged between 1.1947-1.2000 and there has been almost no change since morning. Now a cross over the trend line (joining the high of 1.2325 on 25-Jan 06 and the high of 1.2191 on 31-Jan 06 on the 4-Hourly charts) Resistance at 1.2000 is required to give it fresh momentum to scale higher levels towards 1.2052 and 1.2100. On the other hand, now on a break below the Support at 1.1947, there could be a fall towards 1.1922-14. However, this is unlikely. The overall intraday view is that the pair could trade between 1.1947-1.2000 and it will turn bullish on a break above 1.2000.

Buy Euro 20K at 1.2020, SL 1.1980 TP 1.2075.
Yen @ 118.40/44....Strong resistance at 118.80 and 119.20

R: 118.80 / 119.20
S: 118.29 / 117.68-57
The pair trades indecisively between 118.28-118.80 so far today, with the resistance 18.80-91 still a tough level for the recent Dollar rally seen from 113.42 (12-Jan-06 low) to 119.42 (03-Deb-06 high). While trading below the said Resistance, the pair could be pressured on the down side with the chances of falling to 117.80 by tomorrow. The expected fall might then lead to a subsequent fall to 117.13(38.20% retracement of the mentioned rally). The bias could however continue to remain bullish, on a rise above119.20 to target 120.00 in the next few days.

$ 25K short at 118.75, SL 119.10 (down from 119.35), TP 118.15.

Euro-Yen @ 141.89/94...Downward bias

R: 142.09-11 / 142.33 / 142.77-94
S: 141.73-71 / 141.56 / 141.18-140.99
The Euro-Yen tested its resistance and seems to have resumed its fall. The Cross could now target its Support level at 141.73-71 and below that at 141.56. Incase that also breaks then there could be a fall towards 141.18-140.99. On the upside there are many Resistances, the important ones being at 142.09-11 and above that at 142.33. If there were a move beyond the Resistance of 142.35, the bias would turn neutral.

$-Swiss @ 1.2980/85... Still Ranged between 1.2940-1.3040

R: 1.3040 / 1.3058
S: 1.2988-76 / 1.2935 / 1.2909-2894
As expected in the morning, there has been very little movement in the $-Swiss and it is still ranged within 1.2940-1.3040. The critical Resistance on the upside is still 1.3040, which is the peak of the double top chart pattern seen on the 4-hourly candles. Incase that is crossed, we may see 1.3058. On the downside the Supports still come in at 1.2988-75 followed by the neckline of the double top at 1.2940. The range bound period is expected to continue.
Cable @ 1.7417/22....Indecisive between 1.7377-1.7477

R: 1.7429 / 1.7459-82 / 1.7530
S: 1.7377 / 1.7349
The pair still trades indecisively within the previous day range of 1.7377-1.7477. This suggests, while 1.7377 Support holds, the recent Cable bearishness seen from 1.7812 on 03-Feb-06 might make a recovery and subsequently attempt to rise further above 1.7477 by tomorrow. However, on a fall below 1.7377 Support, there are equal chances of falling to 1.7300 by tomorrow as well.

Staying out for today no trades.

Aussie @ 0.7393/98...Watching support at 0.7373

R: 0.7415 / 0.7437-44 / 0.7467-72
S: 0.7373 / 0.7357
The pair has tested its resistance at 0.7419 (mentioned in the morning), but was unable to rise above this level so far today. In case of a dip below the immediate Support at 0.7373, there could be a fall to 0.7350 later today and later to even 0.7300 by tomorrow. However if the support holds, the Aussie fall from 0.7591 (01-Feb-06 high) to 0.767 (08-Feb-06 low) might attempt a recovery till 0.7470 in the next few days before falling again.

AUD 30K short at 0.7436, TSL 0.7420, TP 0.7365.

Happy Trading!


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