Thursday February 9, 2006 - 15:39:54 GMT
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Global-View - www.global-view.com
GVI Monthly Forex Survey Results
In the latest monthly sentiment survey of professional forex dealers by global-view.com, the leading forex discussion site, sentiment for the dollar was now almost neutral against the euro. The three month ahead mean forecast for EURUSD was 1.1987 from 1.2082 a month earlier. The EURUSD spot price at the mid-point (February 7 close) of when the survey was being conducted was 1.1970.
The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index (Range 0-100; 0 = most bearish, 100 = most bullish, 50 = neutral) remained virtually neutral the EUR/USD at 45 from 53 previously. The GVI-Cumino index uses a theoretical neutral option strategy to measure the intensity and direction of individual trader sentiment from price levels at the time when forecasts were made.
The USD/JPY mean dollar forecast improved to 117.68 from 115.81 one month ago. The USD/JPY spot rate at the mid-point of when the survey was being conducted was 118.20. The GVI-Cumino dollar bull index improved. It was 69 after 52.
Traders expect the price of crude oil to close at $62.30 in three months time from the current spot vs. the previous $60.29 estimate.
In a special question, participants were asked where the if they felt the European Central Bank would hike its 2.25% refi rate target to 2.50% on March 2. 85% expect a rate hike.
For complete detailed survey results including history see:
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