Thursday February 9, 2006 - 16:35:46 GMT
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GVI Forex Survey Analysis Courtesy Cumino
GVI Forex Sentiment survey analysis:
The first number is the Bull Index (two weeks ago in brackets). The 3 following numbers are the components, in this order: strong bears, neutral, strong bulls (previous).
EUR USD 3 months: First day close 1.1970 (1.2021), av. responses 1.1987 (1.2082), Adjusted boundaries 1.16-1.24 (1.16-1.24).
GVI 45% (53%) COMPONENTS 22%, 67%, 11% (9%, 75%, 16%).
DRY INDEX: 60% (58%)
6mstd dev: 6%
EUR bearish in absolute and relative terms. Notable the divergence with Dry Index.
Neutrals slightly diminished but are still above LT and 6m mov. avg. (47%).
USD JPY 3 months: First day close 118.17 (116.09), av. responses 117.68 (115.81), Adjusted boundaries 114-122 (112-120).
GVI: 53% (52%) COMPONENTS: 9%, 75%, 16% (12%, 72%, 16%)
DRY INDEX: 37%(41%)
USD bullish in historical terms (the highest GVI number ever seen) neutral in relative terms. Notable the divergence with Dry Index where Index is on average.
Neutral components at 75% are well above LT average (60%) and 6m av. (62%). Note that both actual and implied volatilities in the market moved higher in January and are above their 6m mov.avg. This divergence with vol. perceived in the Survey coupled with the great divergence in GVI and Dry is interesting, adding potentially more significance to every technical point, once broken.
The moving correlation between EUR-USD GVI and USD-JPY GVI indexes is high in the last months suggesting that mostly is a USD theme.
OIL 3 months: First day close 63.09 (63.14), av. responses 62.30 (60.29), Adjusted boundaries 56-70(56-70)
GVI: 46% (44%) COMPONENTS: 19%, 70%, 11% (15%, 81%, 4%)
DRY INDEX: 42% (33%)
Unchanged. GVI and DRY near the LT average. Bulls components slightly increased. Previous reading was correct forecasting higher prices. This time, after recent Oil retracement, signals are mixed.
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