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Friday February 10, 2006 - 12:11:04 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 10-Feb-2006....1157 GMT

Euro-$ @ 1.1970/73....Ranged with a bullish bias

R: 1.2000-20 / 1.2059-78
S: 1.1955-41 / 1.1910
The Euro showed little movement during the day and stayed within the range of 1.2015 and 1.1955. Now a break out from this range would indicate that a directional movement is going to take place. On the upside the Resistances lie at 1.2000-20 and if that is crossed there may be a sharp rally towards 1.2059-78. On the other hand, a break below the Support of 1.1955-41 could lead to a fast fall towards 1.1910, but that is unlikely. Intraday, the pair could remain ranged between 1.1950-1.2000 with a bullish bias

Buy Euro 20K at 1.2030, SL 1.1990 TP 1.2075.

Yen @ 117.45/49....Selling on rise

R: 117.76-92 / 118.33-44
S: 117.49 / 117.26-14 / 117.00
The Dollar fall seen during the day has formed a double top reversal formation on the daily close charts, with neckline coming at 117.92. For today an intraday bounce back may find strong resistance at 117.92 and later at 118.43, which may provide selling opportunity again. With this, the recent Dollar rally from 113.42 (12-Jan-06) to 119.42 (03-Feb-06) might undergo some more correction in the next week till 115.70.

Sell $ 25K at 117.80, SL 118. 30,TP open.

Euro-Yen @ 140.62/67....Downward bias

R: 141.10-23 / 141.34-50 /
S: 140.67 / 140.36
There has been a sharp fall in the Euro-Yen during the day so far (Biggest single day fall in 2006), and the major Supports now come on the trend line (4-Hourly, joining the low of 142.02 on 1-Feb 06 and the low of 140.95 on 7-Feb 06) at 140.36. There is a minor support coming in above that at 140.67. On the upside, the Resistance now comes in at 141.10-23. Incase of a recovery beyond that level, there could be a test of 141.34-50, but expect sellers on rallies. The bias for the day is bearish, but since already there has been a big fall, no trades.

$-Swiss @ 1.2989/94....Ranged between 1.2940-1.3040

R: 1.2995 / 1.3040 / 1.3063
S: 1.2975 / 1.2954-40 / 1.2908-2898
Once again, there has been very little movement in the $-Swiss during the day and now seems to be ready for a breakout. The presence of large tails and small bodies on the 4-Hourly charts clearly indicate that the current direction is unclear. Now, on the upside, the Resistance comes in at 1.2995, above which the significant one at 1.3040. In case there is a break above the Resistance there could be a biggish rally. On the other hand the Supports lie at 1.2975, and then at 1.2954-40. Incase this range of Supports break, there could be a quick fall towards 1.2908-2898. The intraday bias is neutral. We would like to sell on a rally.

Sell 25K @ 1.3020 SL 1.3060, TP 1.2950

Cable @ 1.7468/73.....Watching today

R: 1.7500 / 1.7531-50
S: 1.7444-27 / 1.7377
The pair has found strong support at 1.7437-27 on intraday basis and has bounced back from there. Hence a test of 1.7531 is likely to be seen, which is the 38.20% retracement of the Cable fall seen from 1.7812 (03-Feb-06 high) to 1.7374 (09-Feb-06 low) in the next few hours. A rise above 1.7531 could be bullish for the pair to 1.7625 in the next week. On the 4-hourly close charts, the pair has confirmed a double bottom break out with the neck line being 1.7444, which suggests a further rise is likely to be seen.

However, in case of a dip back below the support region 1.7444-1.7427 a fall to 1.7377 is also equally likely for today. Therefore we prefer to stay out and wait for a confirmation of the rally.

Aussie @ 0.7432/37....Watching resistance at 0.7450 and 0.7475
R: 0.7449 / 0.7470-87
S: 0.7402-0.7399 / 0.7373 / 0.7357
The Aussie has broken above the immediate Resistance at 0.7423 and may now test the next important level of resistances at 0.7450 and 0.7475. A strong close above the 0.7450 resistance could provide the required impetus to rally above 0.7500 in the next week. Currently the Aussie appears to be trading in a convincing bull territory, but we still prefer to wait for a bullish confirmation for today. Failure to close above the resistance at 0.7450 today, might prove the expected rally doubtful.

Happy Trading!


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