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Monday February 13, 2006 - 19:51:28 GMT
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Daily Forex Market Commentary, 2/13/06

Daily Forex Market Commentary
Monday, February 13, 2006 8:00 GMT
By: Cornelius Luca, Currencies Analyst, GFT
http://www.gftforex.com

The dollar showed the standard weakness following the weak US trade deficit report (please act surprised!!!) but then managed a significant bullish reversal versus the European currencies. It even reduced its losses against the yen. The key was the euro/dollar, which managed to break below the support of a medium term trendline. This means that following some minor retracement, the dollar should advance further.


***Euro/dollar***
Euro/dollar made the expected recovery until after the release of the US trade gap and after several unsuccessful attempts to hold on to cement gains above 1.2000, it made a sharp decline. The slide melted its early gains on Friday and the pair hit a five-week low of 1.1894. The pair closed below the trendline rising since early December, so expect further weakness this week.

Initial support is pegged to the 1.1850 area. Below this level further support is seen at 1.1805.

Immediate resistance is at 1.1930. Above 1.1980, expect resistance at 1.2060. The next one is 1.2105.

Oscillators are falling.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
LONG-TERM: Bullish


***Dollar/yen***
As expected, dollar/yen made quite a decline on Friday, and despite recouping about half of these losses, it still closed down on the day. The pair should now consolidate with risk on the upside. The key level is

Initial resistance is at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 117.75 and 118.75. That’s followed by 118.90. Above 119.38, the pair retains good resistance at 119.65 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 119.15 and 120.15.

The pair has support at 117.35. The following area of interest is 117.00. Next level is 116.85 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.

Oscillators are mixed.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
LONG-TERM: Bullish


***Sterling/dollar***
Sterling/dollar failed its recovery on Friday, so the pair should remain under selling pressure at least early this week.

Below 1.7373 the pair has support at 1.7320. Next support is at 1.7243.

Initial resistance is pegged at 1.7480. Next level is 1.7530. Above 1.7590, the pound has strong resistance at 1.7655.

The oscillators are declining.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bearish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish


***Dollar/Swiss franc***
Dollar/Swiss franc reversed its early losses and then made a sharp rally on Friday, when it surged to a five-week high of 1.3068. Expect another rally this week for a test of the trendline declining since November, now at 1.3100.

The target of the first bullish flag at 1.3050 was already reached. If 1.3100 gives way, then look for dollar/Swiss franc to reach the target of the second flag at 1.3135. Distant resistance is at 1.3280.

Immediate support is at 1.3040. Below 1.2990 there is support at 1.2900. Only a close below 1.2840 would signal an acceleration of the decline and the pair would challenge the support at 1.2735.

Oscillators are rising.

NEAR-TERM: Slightly bullish
MEDIUM-TERM: Mixed
LONG-TERM: Bullish








DISCLAIMER: The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.

 

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