Share This Story
Forex Trading StrategiesJPY pressing stronger still in the crosses as many JPY crosses see new two week lows. US Retail Sales up today.
Germany's GDP was flat in Q4. The ZEW survey is up later today but main event is Bernanke tomorrow.
MAJOR HEADLINES â€“ PREVIOUS SESSION
â€˘ UK Leading Indicator Index for December out at 0.0%
â€˘ New Zealand Retail Sales for December out at 0.0% vs. +0.3% expected
â€˘ National Australia Bank's January Business Survey dropped -6 point to a reading of 8
â€˘ Japan Tokyo Condominium Sales dropped -7.0% in January
â€˘ Japan Tokyo Department Store Sales rose 0.1% in January on a year-on-year basis.
â€˘ Germany's GDP showed no growth on a quarter-on-quarter basis vs. +0.2% expected. Year-on-year growth was 1.0%
JPY was stronger across the board overnight, and the USD eased a bit weaker in general.
THEMES TO WATCH â€“ UPCOMING SESSION
The JPY moved stronger again overnight, and remains the center of attention. One news agency claimed that an interview with a senior BoJ official indicated that the market may be surprised at how quickly the governors will be willing to begin unwinding the quantitative easing policy. In another story, a government report was out indicating that Japanese investors were net sellers of foreign bonds in January for the first time since last March. This is a key development as it is the capital flow situation that defines the trajectory of the JPY. With the sharp return lower again, we're soon getting to levels in USD/JPY that indicate a real trend change to the bearish side if we cut back through 116.50, and especially the big old 115.00 level.
For the broader USD view, the market is clearly indecisive ahead of Bernanke's appearance before the House tomorrow. There is no doubt that the man feels the new weight of his responsibility and is probably crafting one of the most carefully worded statements ever. Judging from his past performances, he will likely put in a very strong performance as he begins the long struggle to establish his authority and means of communicating with the market. My old rule of thumb is that the direction the market is heading going into a significant event risk is the opposite of the direction it will be headed on the other side of the event risk...though we have no statistical support for this "rule".
US Retail Sales another big number up today, with expectations for a rather robust 0.9% growth in sales and +0.8% less Autos. Ahead of this, we have the Germany ZEW at 1000 GMT (likely to be strong to reflect the strong stock market) and UK inflation data at 0930. Strange to see the relative strength in GBP with the rate view heading south in a hurry. Is GBP vulnerable here? It should be if the inflation data continues to see a deteriorating rate view...
Note: the support/resistance levels used in the matrixâ€™s of this document are levels derived from yesterday high, low and close. Reference in the text to other support/resistance levels will occur.
Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated.
Please read our full Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer at www.saxobank.com/analysis/disclaimer.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."