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Tuesday February 14, 2006 - 12:15:35 GMT
FX Thoughts for the Day -

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FX Thoughts for the day - Evening - 14-Feb-2006....1202 GMT

Euro-$ @ 1.1894/97.... Bearishness continues

R: 1.1927 / 1.1946-48 / 1.1989-92
S: 1.1860 / 1.1823
The Euro has been consolidating within a range of 1.1876 and 1.1926. We expect the range to continue and a directional move coming in the direction of the break of the range. On the downsides, the Supports come in at 1.1860 and then at 1.1823. On the upside the Resistances come in at 1.1926, at 1.1946-48 and then at 1.1989-92. However we are not expecting much of a recovery. In any case we might see big selling interest on a rally. The intraday bias continuous to be bearish.

Yen @ 117.36/40....Watching support at 117.12-04

R: 117.62-69 / 117.85-118.05
S: 117.12-04 / 116.65-57
The recent Dollar rally seen from 12-Jan-06 low of 113.42 to 03-Feb-06 high of 119.42 has already retraced 38.20% (117.12) and has found some Support there. If this Support is broken, there could be a fall further to 116.50 in a couple of days. For today, the pair might continue to trade with a bearish bias, with strong intraday resistances at 117.61-69 and later at 117.90. Even if the support holds, the chance of a recovery still looks doubtful as of now.

Watching support at 117.12-04 for today.

Euro-Yen @ 139.59/64...Bearish towards 138.95

R: 140.02-08 / 140.22 / 140.63-73
S: 139.20 / 138.95
The Euro-Yen continues to see follow up selling and is going down. It has reached our expected morning target of 139.77 and now a break below this level could take it towards its next Support level at 139.20, which falls on the trend line (4-Hourly joining the low of 141.01 on the 07-Feb 06 and the low of 140.01 on the 10-Feb 06) and then at 138.95. On the upside we expect selling on rallies to continue. The strong Resistances are present at 140.02-08 and then at 140.22. Above these levels there is Resistance at 140.63-73. The intraday bias is currently bearish and now a move beyond 140.63-73 is required to change the bias to neutral.

$-Swiss @ 1.3090/95.... Buy a Dip

R: 1.3108 / 1.3124 / 1.3167
S: 1.3047 / 1.3014 / 1.2976-69
As expected the $-Swiss has stayed within the range expected in the morning and it is expected to continue trading in this way for a while more. On the downside the lower end of the range comes in at 1.3050 and the upper end comes in at 1.3108. Once the range is broken then we may see a bigger move in the direction of the break of the range. On the downside below the range, the Supports come in at 1.3014 and then at 1.2976-69. Buying on declines is expected to continue. On the upside Resistances come in at 1.3124 and then at 1.3167, which is the statistically projected Max High on the daily. On the whole, the pair is likely to trade with a bullish bias. Buy a dip.

Buy 25K @ 1.3055 SL 1.3030, TP 1.3100

Cable @ 1.7344/49..Looking for 1.7300

R: 1.7411-27 / 1.7447 / 1.7503-20
S: 1.7305
The pair has just broken below the range bottom at 1.7369-64, of f range 1.7369-1.7471 seen from the last few days (with the Friday’s spike to 1.7576 considered as false spike). As expected the range resistance at 1.7447-57 continued to invite selling and kept the pair pressured on the down side. With this, the pair is likely to fall to 1.7300 and below either today or tomorrow. Intraday bounce back if seen any might still find selling interest.

Overall the pair is trading in a bearish channel since 23-Jan-06 and the pair has fallen after hitting the resistance at 1.7448-57 within the channel today.

Aussie @ 0.7366/71..... Watching today

R: 0.7374-83 / 0.7398
S: 0.7324-15
The Aussie has been testing the support region at 0.7362-57 since yesterday, but still unable to see any major selling today also. This support region looks weak enough to hold for any rally and a fall to 0.7310 may be expected in a couple of days. As mentioned earlier, the trendline drawn from the 01-Feb-06 high of 0.7591, joining the 10-Feb-06 high of 0.7440 has been consistently providing Resistance at 0.7398-0.7400 from the last few days. This limits the chances of a rally and may keep the pair pressured on the down side today as well.
On the other hand a rise above 0.7400 (whose chances look bleak) might probably see a recovery to 0.7450 before falling again. Hence we prefer to watch for today.

Happy Trading!


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