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Monday July 5, 2004 - 13:01:15 GMT
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Equity Trading Strategies - July 5th 2004

SPX may yet see the corrective decline at 1115 - 1105; NDX 100 may fall further to 1450

The stock markets are looking for a bottom soon -- the next bull market should follow thereafter.


Japan's economic recovery is gaining momentum as it spreads to service companies from manufacturers and beyond major cities, Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said. ``The economy is gradually gaining momentum to return to the path of sustainable growth,'' Fukui said in a speech at a conference held at the bank in Tokyo. He said the recovery needs further momentum to achieve sustainable growth. The central bank pushed overnight rates close to zero by raising its target for reserves available to lenders in March 2001, aiming to stop deflation and support economic growth.

Equity Market Summary:

Asian stocks fell today after a U.S. report showed fewer jobs were created in June than expected, raising concern demand from the world's largest economy may slow. Morgan Stanley Capital International's Asia-Pacific Index, which tracks more than 900 stocks in the region, fell 1.2 percent to 90.12, declining for a second day, at 11 a.m. in Tokyo. Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average declined 1.5 percent to 11,547.50. The Kospi index shed 1.1 percent in Seoul. Taiwan's Taiex index fell 1.6 percent.

U.S. stocks sank on the weaker than expected jobs number on Friday. The economy created a mere 112,000 net jobs in June, below expectations and down sharply from the close to 300,000 average pace of the prior three months. Factory orders slid for the second consecutive month in May, although the pace of decline was half the consensus. On a positive note, global semiconductor sales put in a solid performance during the month, reaching their highest level since the end of 2000. Stocks opened weak out of the gate and selling accelerated through mid-morning. The market made its lows for the day early on and proceeded to vacillate in a narrow range for the remainder of the session, which was characterized by light volume ahead of the long holiday weekend. All three major indexes finished with modest losses on both the day and the week. Dow -51.33 at 10282.83, Nasdaq -8.89 at 2006.66, S&P -3.56 at 1125.38

The main European bourses were all in the red Friday, opening weak and following the U.S. indices down in afternoon trading. ECB Chief Economist Otmar Issing’s comments on Friday, emphasizing inflationary concerns, raised the possibility that an ECB rate hike might come sooner than expected. Heretofore, most had anticipated tightening in early 2005. Finally, the lower-than-expected gains in U.S. payrolls helped usher European bourses downward. The DAX and CAC-40 had both shed about 0.8% by the close; the French index fell just over 60 points on the week, while its German compatriot fell a marginal ten points. Meanwhile, the FTSE-100 and SMI (Swiss Market Index) fell by smaller margins of 0.5% and 0.3% respectively, though both closed down on the week’s start. The FTSE has retreated from the 4,500 barrier it broke mid-week.

Equity Technicals:

- DAX Index - the DAX index may correct back to 3925, a process which may take place later in the week. The medium-term outlook remains unchanged -- expect a new upwards cycle thereafter which should go on and challenge the 4175 top further out, and perhaps go on and focus at a 4500 upside target later in the year.

- FTSE 100 Index - the technical picture has deteriorated even further and the index may keep on going towards the 4350 - 4320 area. The medium-term outlook remains positive nonetheless. The next upwards phase from there may kick off a new upside sequence which will go on and challenge the 4600 top, and perhaps extend gains further towards 4750 later in the year.

- S&P 500 - no change in view -- we may yet see a corrective decline to 1115 - 1105. What we are looking for is a small pullback before the main rally resumes. Recent action is indeed supportive of the view that the new bull market cycle has began and would accelerate higher at some point. The new upwards phase may go on and challenge the 1165 top, and thereafter extend gains to 1225 - 1230 later in the year.

- Dow Jones Ind Ave. - we may yet see a sell-off to 10,100 -- a small correction before the main uptrend resumes. A new bull market waits in the wings -- and eventually, we expect to see a rally to the 10,800 top, and perhaps further appreciation towards 11,500 later in the year.

- NDX 100 - The index may fall further to 1450 area, but the uptrend should reassert thereafter. The medium-term view remains strong -- a new bull market has taken the first steps -- we expect to see a test of the 1560 top thereafter, and perhaps further appreciation towards 1700 later in the year.

- Nikkei - a pullback to 11,250 - 11,200 area may have started. A new bull market should initiate soon nonetheless, which may have 14,000 as the major goal late in the year. The short-term view however fails if the current rally goes above 11,600.

- Hang Seng - the index breaks resistance and may rise back to 12,500. Nonetheless, we still make allowances for a corrective decline back to 11,800 - 11,700 from there, a +test of the base+ type of retracement. The bull markets should then resume and may target the 16,500 - 17,000 area later in the year.


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