Wednesday February 15, 2006 - 14:34:55 GMT
Share This Story
GFT - www.gftforex.com
Daily Forex Market Commentary - 2/15/06
Daily Forex Market Commentary
Wednesday, February 15, 2006 8:00 GMT
By: Cornelius Luca, Currencies Analyst, GFT
The dollar surged in early US trading on news that the US retail sales surged 2.3% in January, the most since May 2004, but then gave back its gains against the euro and the franc. Cable was weak following a weak CPI report, which increased the odds the BoE will cut rates. All eyes will be on the new Fed Chairman Bernankeâ€™s report on economy â€“ expect a hawkish tone.
Euro/dollar sank to a 1 Â½-month low of 1.1858 early on Tuesday before recouping losses and closing unchanged. The pair remains below the trendline rising since early December, so, once again, expect further weakness this week. But in the short term, it should edge higher on profit taking.
Immediate resistance remains at 1.1930. Above 1.1980, expect resistance at 1.2060. The next one is 1.2105.
Initial support is pegged to the 1.1850 area. Below this level further support is still seen at 1.1805.
Oscillators are falling.
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bearish
Dollar/yen made a temporary decline on Tuesday but then trimmed losses â€“ while still well within Fridayâ€™s range. The pair should consolidate further today.
Initial resistance is at 117.90. Strong resistance follows at 118.25 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 117.75 and 118.75. Above 119.38, the pair retains good resistance at 119.65 from a 50-point pivot, which targets 119.15 and 120.15.
The pair has support at 117.10. The next level is 116.85 from another 50-point pivot, which targets 116.35 and 117.35.
Oscillators are mixed.
MEDIUM-TERM: Slightly bullish
Sterling/dollar collapsed on Tuesday to a 1 Â½-month low of 1.7279 on fear that the Bank of England has more room to cut rates. The overall outlook remains negative.
Below 1.7279 the pair has support at 1.7243. Next support is at 1.7243. Further support lies at 1.7185.
Initial resistance is pegged at 1.7360. Next level is 1.7390. Above 1.7450, the pound has strong resistance at 1.7570.
The oscillators are declining.
Dollar/Swiss franc reached a 1 Â½-month high for the uptrend at 1.3136, which reached the target of the second flag at 1.3135 in early trading on Tuesday. Expect further general strength, but not before a corrective pullback.
Above 1.3135 gives dollar/Swiss franc has pivotal resistance at 1.3200. Distant resistance is at 1.3280.
Immediate support remains at 1.3040. Below 1.2990 there is support at 1.2900. Only a close below 1.2840 would signal an acceleration of the decline and the pair would challenge the support at 1.2735.
Oscillators are rising.
DISCLAIMER: This forum and the information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your investment decisions. Global Forex Trading is merely providing this column for your general information. The views of the author are not necessarily those of Global Forex Trading, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition, any projections or views of the market provided by the author may not prove to be accurate. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this column. Global Forex Trading and Cornelius Luca do not render investment, legal, accounting, tax, or other professional advice. If investment, legal, tax, or other expert assistance is required, the services of a competent professional should be sought.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."